My personal portfolio
David Fuller's view I bought another equal sized gold (weekly
& daily) unit this afternoon, this
time paying $1735.6, including dealing costs, for a February 2013 position.
This increased my total long position in bullion futures by 12.5%. My other
gold futures are in the expiring December contract and they will be rolled into
the February contract early next week.
Technically,
this is a trading position because I am long futures contracts. However, in
my mind gold is also an important investment, and has been over the last eleven
years and counting. For a UK citizen gold futures are the most tax effective
means of playing this market. I also regard gold futures as the most efficient
and probably one of the safest ways to participate in this market.
This
latter comment may surprise some of you but I will explain. Gold mining shares
are much more risky than the actual metal because of all the uncertainties and
rising costs of mining. I also worry less about the financial security and integrity
of IG (my spread-bet broker) than I would about actually holding bullion. That
can be expensive; safety is always a concern, and unfortunately but unsurprisingly
the number of fake gold bars appears to be increasing with bullion's price.
One can get carried away with the use of leverage in futures markets but the
solution to that potential problem is to trade well within the limits of one's
capital. The biggest abuses of leverage occur within financial institutions
where some dealers will gamble recklessly in pursuit of instant wealth.
I should
also introduce an important caveat, regarding spread-betting in the UK and some
other countries. If you lose money spread-betting, and many people do, those
losses are not offsetable against profits made elsewhere. Therefore, for those
of you interested in spread-betting, it may be best to use it mainly when you
have a high level of conviction. Of course that view should be considered subjective
and it may not be justified by events. I do not know anyone, myself included,
who has not lost money on some of their 'high conviction' bets. That is another
reason for why investing is such an interesting and challenging business.
Lastly,
while spread-bets in precious metals can be conducted in several different reserve
currencies, I prefer to use the USD because it is most widely followed and remains
generally soft, except during 'risk-off' periods when 'crisis' perceptions run
high. Holding physical gold in a strong currency will ensure underperformance.
However, if I am still holding gold and other precious metals via spread-bets
in USD when the bond market bubble bursts, I may need to reduce exposure to
the sector because the greenback will most likely be viewed as a temporary safe
haven.
Returning
to the precious metals markets, I am also long silver,
platinum and palladium
futures. I will gradually increase my exposure in precious metals, assuming
these markets perform in line with my expectations. My strategy will be to leverage
up when I can protect earlier purchases with comfortably in-the-money trailing
stops. I also intend to reduce overall exposure when prices look overextended
and susceptible corrections. Needless to say, it is easier to write about all
this than to put it into effective practice in the heat of the battle with one's
own emotions. But nothing ventured - nothing gained, as they say.