My personal portfolio: USD/JPY and AJG longs rolled forward; crude oil, rice and wheat longs increased
David Fuller's view The
first two are delayed reports as I have had time away from the office but the
intention to roll forward had been mentioned.
After
Baby Steps range trading USD/JPY with
some modest initial success earlier this year I made a dog's dinner of this
strategy by holding on in the belief that a long-term base was forming for the
dollar against the yen and that the Japanese would have to weaken their currency.
I could have only done this with a moderately sized position relative to capital
for the exercise and I trade well within my capital allocated for a trade when
not using stops. The bad news is that my remaining September USD/JPY longs,
purchased between 6th May and 12th August at an average price of ¥90.98,
were sold on automatic rollover at ¥84.08 on 10th September, when December
positions were simultaneously purchased for my account at ¥84.07. Japan
finally intervened today, resulting in a dramatic upside key day reversal and
I also expect a weekly key when this Friday's trading has been completed.
Maintaining
that a weaker yen would trigger a stock market rally by lagging Japan, I also
allowed my losing long in the Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (weekly
& daily) to be rolled forward. My
September AJG long was sold at 941.815 on 14th September against my purchase
at 1127.8 on 1st April, and I simultaneously purchased a December contract at
949.3. I won't make a habit of this because the spreads are wide.
During
a pullback in the price of crude oil
today, and with an in-the-money stop on my earlier purchase, I doubled my long
position, paying $76.645 for a November contract this time.
I also
doubled my rough rice long today, paying
$12.115 for another November position.
Stop
Press: Following a discussion of crop prospects I increased my wheat
long by 50%, paying $7.286 for another December position.
These
prices include all spread-bet dealing costs.