New Zealand
Comment of the Day

August 15 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

New Zealand

Eoin Treacy's view New Zealand came through the global financial crisis better than most countries and has risen to the challenge of rebuilding following a number of devastating earthquakes. The additional monetary easing that followed these events coupled with globally competitive yields has helped boost interest in the stock market and may help to explain New Zealand's outperformance compared to Australia.

The Fully Gross 50 Index (P/E 19.18, yield 4.56%) has been ranging with an upward bias for much of the last three-years and despite a propensity for lengthy ranging, has held a medium-term progression of higher reaction lows. It is particularly notable today because it is one of only a handful of international markets to have hit a new high since May. While somewhat overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below the June low near 3380 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on May 2nd).

Telecom Corp of Australia (9.06%) remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and hit a new recovery high today. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near NZ$2.35 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Telstra (10.17%) has a relatively similar pattern but appears to have begun to revert towards its mean.

Auckland International Airport (5.12%) has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions over the last three years and a sustained move below it, currently near NZ$2.40, would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Infratil (5.39%) broke upwards and consolidated above NZ$2 in May and hit a new recovery high three weeks ago. A sustained move below NZ$2 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Kiwi Income Property (7.59%) is testing the upper side of its three-year base. TrustPower (6.78%) broke out of its base in May, consolidated above the MA and hit a new closing high today. A sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Michael Hill International (4.63%) has been trending consistently higher since 2009 and found support in the region of the MA from early July.

Port of Tauranga (4%) hit a new closing high today and while somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the MA would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

While Ryman Healthcare (2.33%) remains in a tight uptrend it is becoming increasingly susceptible to a reversion towards the mean. Xero Ltd is also susceptible to mean reversion following an impressive move to the upside. New Zealand came through the global financial crisis better than most countries and has risen to the challenge of rebuilding following a number of devastating earthquakes. The additional monetary easing that followed these events coupled with globally competitive yields has helped boost interest in the stock market and may help to explain New Zealand's outperformance compared to Australia.

The Fully Gross 50 Index (P/E 19.18, yield 4.56%) has been ranging with an upward bias for much of the last three-years and despite a propensity for lengthy ranging, has held a medium-term progression of higher reaction lows. It is particularly notable today because it is one of only a handful of international markets to have hit a new high since May. While somewhat overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below the June low near 3380 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on May 2nd).

Telecom Corp of Australia (9.06%) remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and hit a new recovery high today. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near NZ$2.35 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Telstra (10.17%) has a relatively similar pattern but appears to have begun to revert towards its mean.

Auckland International Airport (5.12%) has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions over the last three years and a sustained move below it, currently near NZ$2.40, would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Infratil (5.39%) broke upwards and consolidated above NZ$2 in May and hit a new recovery high three weeks ago. A sustained move below NZ$2 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Kiwi Income Property (7.59%) is testing the upper side of its three-year base. TrustPower (6.78%) broke out of its base in May, consolidated above the MA and hit a new closing high today. A sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Michael Hill International (4.63%) has been trending consistently higher since 2009 and found support in the region of the MA from early July.

Port of Tauranga (4%) hit a new closing high today and while somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the MA would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

While Ryman Healthcare (2.33%) remains in a tight uptrend it is becoming increasingly susceptible to a reversion towards the mean. Xero Ltd is also susceptible to mean reversion following an impressive move to the upside.

Back to top