New Zealand
Eoin Treacy's view New Zealand came through the
global financial crisis better than most countries and has risen to the challenge
of rebuilding following a number of devastating earthquakes. The additional
monetary easing that followed these events coupled with globally competitive
yields has helped boost interest in the stock market and may help to explain
New Zealand's outperformance compared to Australia.
The
Fully Gross 50 Index (P/E 19.18, yield
4.56%) has been ranging with an upward bias for much of the last three-years
and despite a propensity for lengthy ranging, has held a medium-term progression
of higher reaction lows. It is particularly notable today because it is one
of only a handful of international markets to have hit a new high since May.
While somewhat overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below the
June low near 3380 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional
upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on May
2nd).
Telecom
Corp of Australia (9.06%) remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and
hit a new recovery high today. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a
sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near NZ$2.35 would be required
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Telstra
(10.17%) has a relatively similar pattern but appears to have begun to revert
towards its mean.
Auckland
International Airport (5.12%) has found support in the region of the 200-day
MA on a number of occasions over the last three years and a sustained move below
it, currently near NZ$2.40, would be required to question medium-term scope
for continued higher to lateral ranging.
Infratil
(5.39%) broke upwards and consolidated above NZ$2 in May and hit a new recovery
high three weeks ago. A sustained move below NZ$2 would be required to begin
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Kiwi
Income Property (7.59%) is testing the upper side of its three-year base.
TrustPower (6.78%) broke out of its
base in May, consolidated above the MA and hit a new closing high today. A sustained
move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Michael
Hill International (4.63%) has been trending consistently higher since 2009
and found support in the region of the MA from early July.
Port
of Tauranga (4%) hit a new closing high today and while somewhat overbought
in the short-term a sustained move below the MA would be required to begin to
question medium-term scope for additional upside.
While
Ryman Healthcare (2.33%) remains in a
tight uptrend it is becoming increasingly susceptible to a reversion towards
the mean. Xero Ltd is also susceptible
to mean reversion following an impressive move to the upside. New Zealand came through the
global financial crisis better than most countries and has risen to the challenge
of rebuilding following a number of devastating earthquakes. The additional
monetary easing that followed these events coupled with globally competitive
yields has helped boost interest in the stock market and may help to explain
New Zealand's outperformance compared to Australia.
The
Fully Gross 50 Index (P/E 19.18, yield
4.56%) has been ranging with an upward bias for much of the last three-years
and despite a propensity for lengthy ranging, has held a medium-term progression
of higher reaction lows. It is particularly notable today because it is one
of only a handful of international markets to have hit a new high since May.
While somewhat overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below the
June low near 3380 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional
upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on May
2nd).
Telecom
Corp of Australia (9.06%) remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and
hit a new recovery high today. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a
sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near NZ$2.35 would be required
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Telstra
(10.17%) has a relatively similar pattern but appears to have begun to revert
towards its mean.
Auckland
International Airport (5.12%) has found support in the region of the 200-day
MA on a number of occasions over the last three years and a sustained move below
it, currently near NZ$2.40, would be required to question medium-term scope
for continued higher to lateral ranging.
Infratil
(5.39%) broke upwards and consolidated above NZ$2 in May and hit a new recovery
high three weeks ago. A sustained move below NZ$2 would be required to begin
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Kiwi
Income Property (7.59%) is testing the upper side of its three-year base.
TrustPower (6.78%) broke out of its
base in May, consolidated above the MA and hit a new closing high today. A sustained
move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Michael
Hill International (4.63%) has been trending consistently higher since 2009
and found support in the region of the MA from early July.
Port
of Tauranga (4%) hit a new closing high today and while somewhat overbought
in the short-term a sustained move below the MA would be required to begin to
question medium-term scope for additional upside.
While
Ryman Healthcare (2.33%) remains in a
tight uptrend it is becoming increasingly susceptible to a reversion towards
the mean. Xero Ltd is also susceptible
to mean reversion following an impressive move to the upside.