Newmont unleashes some old fashioned charm
Comment of the Day

February 26 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Newmont unleashes some old fashioned charm

This article by Barry Sargeant for Mineweb.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Newmont's operating cash flow outcome for 2009 beats its pervious high, set in 2004, at USD 1.6bn. The group's stock price rose until eventually peaking out early in 2006, when it touched USD 60 a share. The year 2007 turned out to be a low water mark for Newmont, low since at least 2003, but the subsequent recovery has been convincing as the group rediscovered its previous form, and focused heavily on growth and cost control. The stock currently trades around the USD 46.50 a share mark, roughly double the multi year lows seen late in 2008.

This year may be a time for an interesting tussle between Newmont and its rivals. Barrick's 2009 outcome was hampered by its hedge book, which it practically wiped out towards the end of the year, at a cash cost of USD 5.2bn. Barrick raised USD 4bn in a rights issue, mainly aimed at financing the hedge book attack; its net debt climbed to end 2009 at USD 3.8bn.

Newmont raised USD 1.3bn in a 2009 rights issue, its biggest equity issue since 2003, when it raised the same amount. Newmont cut its net debt by nearly half in 2009, to USD 1.6bn by year end. The group continued to rank as the world's second-biggest gold miner by output, with 5.3m ounces sold in 2009, along with 226m pounds of copper.

Eoin Treacy's view This additional article by Dorothy Kosich also for Mineweb may also be of interest. The Amex Goldbugs Index, of major un-hedged gold miners, rallied impressively yesterday to form an upside key day reversal. Newmont formed a similar but larger bullish pattern. They would both need to sustain moves below yesterday's lows to question scope for further upside.

The absence of free cash flow in the major miners has been a bugbear among investors for some time since they have not received the optionality to the gold price, one would normally have expected from such high prices. This has contributed to the underperformance of the major gold miners to date. However, there was considerable commonality across the major gold miners yesterday with Goldcorp, Harmony Gold, AngloGold Ashanti, Goldfields, Kinross Gold and Buenaventura all sharing the upside key day reversal characteristic. This suggests the sector is beginning to regain investor interest following its underperformance over the last few months.

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