The top foreign-exchange forecaster says the Japanese government's current approach to reining in the yen by intervening in currency markets will fail.

"Any attempt to drive the yen lower with intervention is unlikely to succeed unless it is backed up with much more aggressive easing measures from the Bank of Japan," says Shaun Osborne, 47, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto.

Osborne earned the top spot among foreign-exchange forecasters for the six quarters ended on June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He did it by focusing on basics such as economic fundamentals and historical market relationships, an approach that allowed him to look beyond the distortions of short-term swings to correctly predict longer-lasting trends such as the strengthening of the yen, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue.

"It's tempting to investigate new methodologies and new ways of analyzing the markets, but by and large, the tried and tested ways eventually win out," says the British-born Osborne.

"While there's been a lot of uncertainty, we've stuck with our basic views on the markets and haven't changed them too often."

Osborne prevailed over rivals at 37 other firms to make TD Securities the most accurate foreign-exchange predictor across eight currency pairs. He predicts that the yen will end the year at 85 per dollar compared with 83.26 as of Oct. 1. The median year-end forecast for the currency pair is 86, according to Bloomberg data.

Eoin Treacy's view I found the above headline to be rather interesting because it dismisses the potential for the BoJ to be more forthright in its intervention. As the Yen moves back to test its high against the US Dollar the potential for further sales by the central bank are increasing rather than decreasing. If happiness in the currency markets is having the trend and the central bank on your side then Yen bulls no longer have both in their favour.

The mid-September intervention broke the five-month progression of lower rally highs and marked a major trend inconsistency. Perhaps the September 15th US Dollar low is a penultimate low but with the BoJ having said they are going to defend ¥82 it is a high risk trade to bet against them.

In tandem with the Dollar approaching an area of support against the Yen, it is also becoming increasingly oversold and against a number of higher growth currencies and the potential for a relief rally is rising.