Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit
Comment of the Day

April 04 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit

Thanks to a subscriber for this article by Zachary A. Goldfarb for The Washington Post which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
“If the only people who can get a loan have near-perfect credit and are putting down 25 percent, you're leaving out of the market an entire population of creditworthy folks, which constrains demand and slows the recovery,” said Jim Parrott, who until January was the senior adviser on housing for the White House's National Economic Council.

One reason, according to policymakers, is that as young people move out of their parents' homes and start their own households, they will be forced to rent rather than buy, meaning less construction and housing activity. Given housing's role in building up a family's wealth, that could have long-lasting consequences.

“I think the ability of newly formed households, which are more likely to have lower incomes or weaker credit scores, to access the mortgage market will make a big difference in the shape of the recovery,” Duke said last month. “Economic improvement will cause household formation to increase, but if credit is hard to get, these will be rental rather than owner-occupied households.”

Eoin Treacy's view The collapse in the housing market and the surge in foreclosures that ensued have left many people suspicious of government intervention. One of the features of the financial sector's response to the credit crisis has been to hoard capital in an effort to rebuild balance sheets. This has made it difficult to qualify for loans, not only in the USA but in a considerable number of European countries. More than a few governments have been talking about how they can encourage banks to begin lending once more.

The fact that a sizeable proportion of the US population experienced some form of credit event in the last couple of years probably means that credit scores are generally lower than they might otherwise have been. No one is suggesting a return to flagrant issuance of adjustable rate mortgages, liar loans or No Income, No Job or Asset (NINJA) loans. As the economy recovers, demand for credit is likely to recover and access to that credit will be key ingredient in the sustainability of consumer demand.

Easing access to refinancing so more borrowers can avail of today's record low rates and taking a more nuanced approach to credit scoring can be justified at this stage of the market cycle because prices have already experienced a major decline and they would aid the recovery. The time to be especially cautious of such measures would be when consumer leverage has been ratcheted up, prices have recovered and the perception of risk is considerably lower.

Credit scoring companies such as Experian and Equifax offer the type of nuanced credit scoring that is likely to prove attractive to both lenders and borrowers over the medium term. UK listed Experian is internationally diversified and as a leader in its field qualifies as an Autonomy. The share has found support in successive occasions in the region of the 200-day MA since 2009 and a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Equifax is listed in the US and its business is primarily directed at its domestic market. The share rallied impressively from its 2011 lows to hit a medium-term peak near $60 in February. It found support near the 200-day MA a month ago and will need to hold above that low near $53 if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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