Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit
“If the only people who can get a loan have near-perfect credit and are putting down 25 percent, you're leaving out of the market an entire population of creditworthy folks, which constrains demand and slows the recovery,” said Jim Parrott, who until January was the senior adviser on housing for the White House's National Economic Council.
One reason, according to policymakers, is that as young people move out of their parents' homes and start their own households, they will be forced to rent rather than buy, meaning less construction and housing activity. Given housing's role in building up a family's wealth, that could have long-lasting consequences.
“I think the ability of newly formed households, which are more likely to have lower incomes or weaker credit scores, to access the mortgage market will make a big difference in the shape of the recovery,” Duke said last month. “Economic improvement will cause household formation to increase, but if credit is hard to get, these will be rental rather than owner-occupied households.”
Eoin Treacy's view The collapse in the housing market and the
surge in foreclosures that ensued have left many people suspicious of government
intervention. One of the features of the financial sector's response to the
credit crisis has been to hoard capital in an effort to rebuild balance sheets.
This has made it difficult to qualify for loans, not only in the USA but in
a considerable number of European countries. More than a few governments have
been talking about how they can encourage banks to begin lending once more.
The
fact that a sizeable proportion of the US population experienced some form of
credit event in the last couple of years probably means that credit scores are
generally lower than they might otherwise have been. No one is suggesting a
return to flagrant issuance of adjustable rate mortgages, liar loans or No Income,
No Job or Asset (NINJA) loans. As the economy recovers, demand for credit is
likely to recover and access to that credit will be key ingredient in the sustainability
of consumer demand.
Easing
access to refinancing so more borrowers can avail of today's record low rates
and taking a more nuanced approach to credit scoring can be justified at this
stage of the market cycle because prices have already experienced a major decline
and they would aid the recovery. The time to be especially cautious of such
measures would be when consumer leverage has been ratcheted up, prices have
recovered and the perception of risk is considerably lower.
Credit
scoring companies such as Experian and Equifax offer the type of nuanced credit
scoring that is likely to prove attractive to both lenders and borrowers over
the medium term. UK listed Experian is
internationally diversified and as a leader in its field qualifies as an Autonomy.
The share has found support in successive occasions in the region of the 200-day
MA since 2009 and a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to
question medium-term upside potential.
Equifax
is listed in the US and its business is primarily directed at its domestic market.
The share rallied impressively from its 2011 lows to hit a medium-term peak
near $60 in February. It found support near the 200-day MA a month ago and will
need to hold above that low near $53 if the medium-term upside is to continue
to be given the benefit of the doubt.