Eoin Treacy's view One of the primary questions for many delegates was whether the May 6th intraday crash was a one-off event that while discomforting in the short-term would have little medium to long-term impact or whether it was the beginning of a lengthier reaction. My attitude is that we cannot simply ignore the event because it had a clear psychological impact on the market. When such an event occurs, it is a reason to pause and take stock. This means that at the very least investors stop buying for a while which can then transform the short-term outlook for supply and demand. If the downward dynamics seen on May 6th could be ignored then most markets should have regained their pre-drop levels relatively quickly. This has not occurred, so the uncertainty this event exacerbated has led to a more concerted effort to take profits. The hope that the sell-off might not be anything more than a very brief reaction has now given way to a more pessimistic opinion in line with the market decline. However, it will remain important to allow the charts to be our guide, rather than increasingly bearish sentiment.

We looked at a number of bank shares but two that are particularly worthy of comment are HSBC and Nordea. Both recovered swiftly from their March 2009 lows and have been among the best performers in the European banking sector.

HSBC rallied impressively from its March 2009 low but lost momentum in the region of 700p from October. The three-year and counting progression of lower rally highs remains intact and the share has also posted a similar sequence of lower highs since October. It broke below the 200-day moving average last week and would need to sustain a move back above 700p to question scope for a further test of underlying trading.

Nordea Bank also lost momentum from October and dropped below the 200-day moving average three weeks ago. A sustained move back above SEK70 would now be required to question scope for some additional downside. Both of these shares have experienced significant trend deterioration and if the medium-term uptrend is to be renewed anytime soon it is now for the bulls to prove.

Delegates at both seminars were very interested in currency markets, both in the context of the long-term effects of quantitative easing and debauched fiat currency and the benefits of a weak currency for a country's exporters. David has commented on gold extensively over the last week so I will concentrate more on the effects of currency moves on exporters. This article by Andreas Cremer for Bloomberg may also be of interest.

During the credit crisis, the Korean Won more than halved against the Yen which gave a non trivial competitive advantage to Korean exporters. Shares such as Hyundai and Kia have been major beneficiaries of a weak Won. Prior to the current volatility, the Yen looked set to fall against most currencies which would have lent a tailwind to its exporters. This still looks like a probability but may take a while longer.

Meanwhile, the Euro has fallen considerably against most currencies and while currently experiencing at least a relief rally, the region's sovereign debt problems are such that a strong currency is not in its medium-term favour and a swift recovery against the US Dollar appears unlikely. The silver lining to Europe's sovereign debt crisis is that the weak currency should help to support earnings for the region's exporters.

Emerging market stock markets and currencies advanced together from their credit crisis lows and a number of markets from Brazil to Indonesia or the Australian ASX300 Resources Index have shown remarkable correlations between the strength of their respective stock markets and the strength of their currencies. While slow growth economies in the USA, Europe, Japan and the UK require weak currencies to increase competiveness, the correlation between stock market performance and currency strength in many emerging/commodity markets suggests they need comparatively strong currencies to attract investment interest. The recent weakness of the Real, Rupiah and Australian Dollar offer headwinds for their respective stock markets.

TIPS have been one of the best performing segments of the fixed income universe since late 2008 but they have now unwound the entire bear market decline. At these levels, a true inflation scare would be required to push spreads out to wider levels and in fact we are seeing the opposite. The 10yr spread broke the progression of higher lows last week and a sustained move back above 220 basis points would be required to question scope for some further compression. BBB Composite spreads have compressed to pre-crisis levels over the last year. The low hanging fruit have been picked and I wonder just how much tighter spreads can get against the current macro economic environment.

The rally from the late 2008 / early 2009 lows has been remarkably impressive for many stock markets. Emerging market currencies have been some of the strongest in the world over the last year. Corporate bond markets have rallied impressively and unwound much of their bear market decline and TIPS have unwound their entire decline. Anxiety has increased considerably over the last month as sovereign concerns have surfaced and investors have entered a "risk-off" period where the US Dollar, Yen and Treasuries have rallied.

Over the last few years, such bouts of increased volatility and risk aversion have ended with 'risk assets' becoming overextended to the downside. Large upward dynamics occurring across a range of markets at once have signalled a return to demand dominance. I believe there is a strong likelihood that the current sell-off will end in similar fashion.