On investing in India
Comment of the Day

September 10 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

On investing in India

Eoin Treacy's view Following up from an email on September 1st asking about restrictions on investing in domestic Indian shares I went through Deepak Lalwani's most recent India Report to see which companies are accessible to international retail investors. The list is relatively small with 8 GDRs listed on the London International Exchange, 10 ADRs listed in the USA and 18 companies listed on London's AIM market. All of the GDRs and ADRs can now be found in the Chart Library. I have not added most of the AIM shares because they either have negligible market caps or spotty data.

Healthcare sectors are increasingly moving to positions of outperformance, particularly in progressing markets because they offer leverage to growing global middle class' ability to pay for more effective healthcare. The generic drug maker Dr.Reddy, listed as an ADR in the USA, has surged higher since March 2009 but has lost momentum somewhat this year. It continues to hold the progression of higher reaction lows and provided these remain intact the upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Ranbaxy, listed as a GDR on the London International Exchange mirrored Dr. Reddy's early advance but has been ranging below $12 for most of this year. It is currently rallying towards the upper side and a sustained move above $12 would reassert the medium-term uptrend.

The Bombay Banks Index has been a lead indicator for the wider Indian market and continues to post new highs. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are both listed in the USA as ADRs, State Bank of India is listed on the London International Exchange. HDFC Bank has the most similar pattern to that of the Index and has been consolidating above $160 for much of the last month. A sustained move below $140 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend. State Bank of India is closing in on the 2007 highs while ICICI Bank looks ready to break upwards to new recovery highs.

The auto sector has also been an outperformer internationally. Tata Motors is listed in the USA as an ADR. It continues to post a succession of higher reaction lows and provided these are sustained the upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Both Infosys and Wipro have been ranging for much of the year following powerful advances from the 2009 lows. Infosys has the more well-defined progression of higher reaction lows but they would both need to sustain moves below their 200-day MAs to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

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