P&G Poised to Mull Brand Sales for Better Stock Return
Comment of the Day

July 18 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

P&G Poised to Mull Brand Sales for Better Stock Return

This article by Tara Lachapelle and Alex Barinka for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Procter & Gamble Co. would stand to boost the lowest valuations in a decade versus competitors by parting with businesses from batteries to dog food.

The largest consumer-goods company cut its profit forecasts three times in 2012 as sales growth slowed in Europe and North America, limiting the stock's gain in the last five years to just 2.6 percent, the worst performance among its household products rivals. Compared with Colgate-Palmolive Co., investors this month were willing to pay the least per dollar of profit to own P&G shares in 10 years, and the Cincinnati-based company's price-earnings ratio fell below Kimberly-Clark Corp.'s for the first time since 2001, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

After William Ackman disclosed a stake in P&G that's his largest initial investment ever, the $178 billion company is seeking to hire advisers amid calls to jettison executives or assets, people familiar with the matter said. Divesting brands such as Iams, Braun, Duracell and Crest could help P&G increase the combined per-share value of its divisions by at least 30 percent to the mid-$80's, said Huntington Asset Advisors. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. says that while sales of units from pet care to consumer tissue should be weighed, a full breakup could value P&G's pieces at as much as $200 billion.

“P&G's stock has been stuck here forever,” Peter Sorrentino, a senior fund manager at Huntington in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. “There's just no real genesis of growth. There's an awful lot of potential in there that could be unlocked with the right kind of restructuring.” Huntington oversees $14.7 billion, and P&G is one of its largest holdings, Sorrentino said.

Eoin Treacy's view P&G ticks all the boxes for an Autonomy with its suite of globally recognised brands, dominant position in consumer goods and truly global reach. It is also an S&P 500 US Dividend Aristocrat yielding 3.46%. Given the diverse nature of its business lines and rather staid performance over the last few years, it is entirely possible that shareholder value may be increased by lending at least some of them an additional air of independence.

The share has rallied impressively over the last month to test the upper side of the 30-month range. A sustained move above $67 will be required to indicate to return to medium-term demand dominance.

On a commonality basis, Johnson & Johnson (3.42%) shared a similar pattern to P&G until last month when it rallied to complete its lengthy range. Kraft (2.91%) hit a new 10-year high this week. Heinz (3.73%) hit a new all-time last week. Colgate Palmolive (2.35%) remains in a steep uptrend and while overextended relative to the 200-day MA a sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Kimberly Clark has a similar pattern over the last few months. While not an Autonomy due to its heavy US focus Church & Dwight has a similar pattern. Japan's Uni-Charm International found support in the region of the 200-day MA from June and has rallied back to test its peak.

The contrast between the above consumer related shares and performance of the Euro Stoxx Index highlights the importance of a thematic approach to investing rather than relying solely on a broad based metric.

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