Parallels to 1937
While the title is a little misleading, this article by Robert Shiller for Project Syndicate highlights the impact of poor economic performance on geopolitics. Here is a section:
There is a name for the despair that has been driving discontent – and not only in Russia and Ukraine – since the financial crisis. That name is the “new normal,” referring to long-term diminished prospects for economic growth, a term popularized by Bill Gross, a founder of bond giant PIMCO.
The despair felt after 1937 led to the emergence of similar new terms then, too. “Secular stagnation,” referring to long-term economic malaise, is one example. The word secular comes from the Latin saeculum, meaning a generation or a century. The word stagnation suggests a swamp, implying a breeding ground for virulent dangers. In the late 1930s, people were also worrying about discontent in Europe, which had already powered the rise of Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini.
?The other term that suddenly became prominent around 1937 was “underconsumptionism” – the theory that fearful people may want to save too much for difficult times ahead. Moreover, the amount of saving that people desire exceeds the available investment opportunities. As a result, the desire to save will not add to aggregate saving to start new businesses, construct and sell new buildings, and so forth. Though investors may bid up prices of existing capital assets, their attempts to save only slow down the economy.
“Secular stagnation” and “underconsumptionism” are terms that betray an underlying pessimism, which, by discouraging spending, not only reinforces a weak economy, but also generates anger, intolerance, and a potential for violence.
Here is a link to the full article.
A topic I have raised on a number of occasions, not least in the audio, over the last few months is the causal effect lower commodity prices have had on the rise in geopolitical tensions. Put simply bulging coffers paper over a lot cracks in terms of economic and political governance. The Arab Spring and unrest in Eastern Europe can both be viewed in this light. While large betting firms still favour a no vote to Scottish Independence, would the polls have been this tight before the financial crisis which has squeezed the incomes of middle class voters? Somehow I doubt it.
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