Greeks are being asked to vote on whether to accept a proposal by the country's creditors for more austerity to keep aid flowing.

Voters have received a clear message from the euro area: vote “Yes” in the July 5 bailout referendum. But Greece’s Syriza-led government is pushing the other way.

The Question:

The 68-word ballot question namechecks four international institutions and asks voters for their opinion on two highly technical documents that weren’t made public before the referendum was called. Here it is, translated into English:

“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on on June 25 and which consists of two documents:

‘‘The first document is called Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond and the second document is called Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.

‘‘- Those citizens who reject the institutions’ proposal vote Not Approved / NO

‘‘- Those citizens who accept the institutions’ proposal vote Approved / YES.’’

David Fuller's view

A ‘Yes’ vote result would make it easier for the EU to provide additional loans to Greece, especially if the Greek government resigned.  European markets would most likely respond with relief rallies.

A ‘No’ vote result would be negative for European markets, at least initially, due to uncertainty and the potential for more acrimonious negotiations between the Syriza-led government and EU officials.  The larger questions are:

1) Would the EU be stronger without Greece?  

2) Would Greece be better off if it left the Eurozone?

I think the European Union and the Euro would be stronger without Greece.  Yes, some other Southern European countries might eventually consider leaving but it has always been unrealistic to assume that this would never happen.

I also think Greece’s economy would be better off outside the Eurozone, although the first few months would be troubled due to transition difficulties, probably complicated by the present left-wing government.  

(See also: Greece Is to Europe as Puerto Rico Is to America)