Greek voters delivered a decisive verdict on proposals put forward by international creditors. The following scenarios are based on conversations with officials working on how to handle the Greek crisis, along with investors and economists.

In Sunday’s referendum, 61.3 percent of voters backed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s rejection of further spending cuts and tax increases in a Greek referendum. Only 38.7 percent voted for “Yes.” There was 62.5% turnout of 9.86 million registered voters, and 5.8% of ballots were invalid or blank.

Emergency negotiations start again this week. Euro-area leaders are set to meet Tuesday evening in Brussels, and things will get started Monday beginning with conference calls among the European players.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was set to hold a conference call Monday morning with European Central Bank head Mario Draghi and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the Eurogroup of euro-area finance chiefs.

Djisselbloem noted the “very regrettable” Greek result in a statement released on Sunday night.

Statement of the #Eurogroup President following the referendum in #Greece: http://t.co/WxITIfwUth

— Jeroen Dijsselbloem (@J_Dijsselbloem) July 5, 2015

I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet French President Francois Hollande in Paris on Monday evening.

David Fuller's view

The only certainty in all this is the number of surprises, adding to the general confusion.  Polls swung from a narrow ‘Yes’ vote majority early last week, to too close to call by Friday.  However, over the weekend the government’s side ran their rallies in the manner of pop concerts, punctuated with fiery speeches by Alexis Tsipras.  This demagoguery and the opportunity to thumb the national nose at EU officials proved irresistible, not least to younger voters. 

The EU is in disarray, compounded by too many spokesmen.  Markets are the losers, because no one knows how or when this is going to end.  European share indices have resumed their ranging corrections, as you can see from Euro Stoxx, French CAC, German DAX, Spanish IBEX, Italian MIB, The Netherland’s AEX and Swedish OMX.  Uncertainty can pull these markets somewhat lower before QE and competitive valuations lift them once again. 

Greece’s Tsipras will be hoping for a better deal following his referendum vote but this would require the EU to break its ‘rules’.  My guess is that Greece would do better over the medium to longer term by leaving the single currency.  This will not happen until or unless the Euro area finance chiefs, including Jeroem Dijsselbloem who heads the group and Mario Draghi of the ECB, refuse to provide any additional liquidity for Greek banks.         

(See also: Greek Showdown Looms With Europe Raising Heat on Tsipras)