Yet the country’s mercantile instincts are undeterred. Its urban classes were once cyber innocents: For years, my relatives would simply give their debit card PIN numbers to shopkeepers to enter for them. Now, almost everyone is savvy to e-commerce and online security. In Silicon Valley, thousands of entrepreneurs of Iranian descent, such as EBay founder Pierre Omidyar and Google executive Omid Kordestani, have been trailblazers in the tech industry; they could be looking for a moment to come back to Iran, make a fortune, and help rebuild their country. Some who dipped in during the moderate era of the early 2000s—before sanctions made business impossible—could rev up their operations again. Xanyar Kamangar, the Tehran-born founding partner at investment firm Griffon Capital, says, “This historic deal will pave the way for the opening of the last major frontier market.”

The government may have resolved the diplomatic technicalities of its confrontation with the West, but it will have to contend with popular expectations. Many in the middle class want loftier change. “There’s this underlying mood that there will be a wider opening up,” says Nader Hemati, a property developer in Tehran. “People think if these sanctions are lifted, Iran’s isolation will end and we’ll suddenly have peaceful relations with the world.”

A huge proportion of the middle class and even of the working classes hope for wider political and social transformation. Young people want free, fast access to the Internet. Journalists and writers want less censorship. They hope that with the threat of war and conflict receding, Iran’s leadership will feel less beleaguered and more inclined to permit basic rights. President Hassan Rouhani promised all of these things from the same electoral podium he vowed to secure a nuclear deal.

The hopes may sound naive, but it’s a sentiment that must now become part of the calculations of the country’s rulers. More than sentiment, the market will come into play. “Increased competition will benefit consumers and investors,” Ghezelbash says, “but in a roundabout way, also the domestic companies that have been shielded from it. In business, as in nature, there is a limit to how much you can grow while insulated.” The transparency demanded by global business dealings may help reform the monopolies that benefited regime cronies, making them less dependent and beholden to the ideologues who run the government. As the Iranian market grows competitive, those who’ve prospered under the sanctions stand to lose the most when sanctions are lifted.

David Fuller's view

There are highly successful Iranians in a number of developed countries, not least the USA.  Conservative theocratic regimes can be among the last to recognise the economic potential of their educated citizens.  Fortunately, President Hassan Rouhani, a mild and worldly cleric who attended university in Glasgow, has been the key Iranian leader ending his country’s isolation.  He is now the most popular person in Iran, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has mellowed with the years. 

With lobotomised Greece remaining in the EU, plus the Iran nuclear deal, these developments produced a short-term peace dividend.  Stock markets have been correcting oversold conditions.  The runaway Nasdaq Biotech Index has hit another new high, although it is now temporarily overextended relative to its MA. Google is testing last year’s highs in what looks like a lengthy consolidation capable of supporting further gains before yearend.  For iconic Apple, a move above $130 will confirm a failed downward break from its current range after a successful test of the rising MA near $120.  Other iconic Autonomies from Nike, to Starbucks and Disney remain in runaway uptrends.  These are also somewhat overextended in the short-term so we can expect some consolidation before long, possibly commencing on Friday. 

We are also in the May to October period of the year when stock markets are more volatile and usually underperform on average.  We have seen some of that already.  Nevertheless, even in troubled Europe Ireland and Denmark have surged to new highs.  These charts above confirm that bull trends are still the dominant theme, particularly in developed markets.