Modi Government First Year Better Than Congress 10 Years Put Together: Arvind Panagariya
Comment of the Day

July 24 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Modi Government First Year Better Than Congress 10 Years Put Together: Arvind Panagariya

My thanks to a subscriber for the link to this interview in The Economic Times.  Here is a brief sample:

What are the implications of the Chinese slowdown for India? Is there an opportunity for India?

Generally, slowdown of a large economy contributes to the slowdown of the global economy, which is not a good thing for an economy such as India. That being said, in so far as the slowdown of China may lead to some vacating by it of export markets in products in which we could emerge as the alternative, it could work to our advantage. 
 

Should the government have used its political capital better and unleashed bigger reforms in its first year?

If you take full stock of what the present government has done in its first year, you will see that the present government has done in its first year more to advance the cause of reforms than the previous government did in all its 10 years put together. Its record in the first year is arguably also superior to that of any other previous government.

Should India have opted for a much slower pace of fiscal consolidation to leverage government spending to revive growth?

The finance minister did make some compromise by extending the consolidation plan from two to three years. This was just about the right compromise since a large compromise would have also sent a negative signal to the markets about the willingness of the government to live within its means. 
 

Can India climb to a higher growth rate despite a soft global economy? How soon do you see recovery becoming more firm?

I have said that India indeed can. For us the critical step is to wrest some of the share of the vast export market from China and other competing countries. Remember that the OECD countries have grown no more than 1.5% per year during 1991-2013 when China managed to register a near-double-digit average rate.

David Fuller's view

Many of us who monitor India from afar would agree with this.  More significantly, there may not be a more knowledgeable and experienced economic observer of India than Arvind Panagariya

I have often said that international investors are similar to judges at a beauty contest.  Asia is the continent with the most credible entries, so how do the main one’s look today?

One’s answer is inevitably somewhat subjective, but several points stand out.  1) Japan is no longer a lost cause; it has a tech economy with recovery potential, and QE is good for investors.  2) China is at an important economic crossroad and the recent policies inspire more shock than awe.  3) India now has a strong government capable of capable of developing its enormous potential, and it also has the goodwill of highly developed allies. 

The latest reports on India’s monsoon are mixed:

Onion prices at near 2-year highs on weak monsoon rains

Monsoon’s good run raises prospects of bigger Kharif harvest

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