It used to be taken for granted that public support for the European Union and its single currency, the euro, depended on how well -- or badly -- things were going at home. When times were hard, people blamed Brussels.

Now, things are changing. Negative developments away from home can dent the 28-nation bloc's reputation too, according to a recent study by Demosthenes Ioannou, Jean-François Jamet and Johannes Kleibl, and published by the European Central Bank.

That's playing into the hands of euroskeptics in countries like France, where dissatisfaction with the economy is already sapping support for the EU.

The drawn-out negotiations between Greece and its creditors, the deepening of the country's economic slump, widespread disbelief that the agreement will secure a stable recovery after 5 years of economic misery: all this is helping distant politicians like National Front leader Marine Le Pen who want to curtail European integration and favor a retrenchment behind national borders.

The authors' argument is bolstered by evidence in countries like Germany, where trust in the common European project has dwindled even as things at home got better.

As the researchers put it, "higher unemployment rates and government debt levels in other member states are systematically related to higher levels of euroskepticism domestically."

This suggests that "economic and fiscal outcomes in other EU member states can play an important role in shaping domestic support for the EU."

It might explain why German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been so bent on keeping Greece in the euro, even in the face of rising unrest in the ranks of her own lawmakers. 

For ECB President Mario Draghi, a failure to hold on to Athens may mean there won't be common European project, and a single European currency, to oversee: "Future political support for the EU may critically depend on the ability of EU institutions to prevent hikes in unemployment and debt across the EU," the study says.

David Fuller's view

Two graphs in the article above, taken from a report published by the ECB, show that confidence in the EU is lower in France than in Germany.  That is not surprising because export oriented Germany benefits the most from a soft Euro.  Also, unemployment in Germany is falling, while it has been mostly rising in France.  However, Germany’s confidence in the EU is just below 50% - hardly a resounding endorsement.  I suspect confidence in the EU would be even lower in most other member states of the Eurozone, given region’s generally poor economic performance.  The problem, I believe, is that the EU is a political rather than economic construct.  Moreover, too many EU policies are created by unelected socialist bureaucrats in Brussels. 

For perspective on the Euro’s future, I suggest we ask ourselves two questions:

1) Are any of the developed European countries that are not in the Eurozone, such as Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland & the United Kingdom, likely to join the single currency in the next several years?

2) Are any of the 18 countries currently in the Eurozone, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain, likely to leave the single currency?

I think the first question is slightly easier to answer, but I will do it in two parts: the United Kingdom and Switzerland, absolutely not; Denmark and Sweden, unlikely. 

As for the second question, since Eurozone countries understandably seem to have little interest in forming a federal system with a central government, I think Greece will reconsider and be only the first Southern European country to leave the Euro.  Citizens of Central and Northern European countries in the Eurozone are already considering the previously unthinkable.