We had an uplifting surprise on Sunday night: elections results were much better than expected. Not only the presidential official candidate (Mr Scioli) will have to go to a second round on November 22nd, but the difference between him and Mr Macri (the leading opposition candidate) is less than 3%. Amazing. On top, the ruling party candidate to the governorship of the Province of Buenos Aires (Anibal Fernandez, Mrs Kirchner's Cabinet Chief) lost miserably to a young, clean faced and down to earth María Eugenia Vidal from Mr Macri's party. 

This is no mean feat: it is the first time a woman is elected Governor of the most important, richest, influential and conflictive province of Argentina, about the size of France. The city of Buenos Aires (an autonomous district) is enclaved in the northeast of the province and encircled by vast pockets of poverty and crumbling infrastructure home to millions of inhabitants, many of whom are the traditional supporters of the Peronist party (Mrs Kirchner and Mr Scioli's party). Evidently they were not happy voting for a candidate suspected of having links with drug trafficking, a scourge that is increasingly affecting our country. 

On top, there is an evident thirst for change coupled with the weariness of being governed twelve long years by the Kirchner family and their acolytes.

The High Noon finale between Mr Macri and Mr Scioli will be on November 22nd. Before midnight of that day we shall know who will be president until 2019.

As I pointed out on my previous email, the second opposition candidate (Mr Massa) voters, are key to the final outcome. Yesterday's main results were: Mr Scioli 36,86% Mr Macri 34,33% and Mr Massa 21,34%. It is a pointless excercise at this stage to add up Macri + Massa votes that would have produced a definitive result in the first round election, but they are still there and in less than a month these people will decide our future. 

There is not much difference between Macri's and Massa's main proposals; probably a small percentage of Massa's voters will never vote for Macri but a large chunk of his followers are nearer to him than to Scioli.

For lack of anything more precise, Mr Macri may be described as a bit centre of right (right and left are very inexact terms nowadays in need of constant redefinition) and a bit centre of left, mildly pro business, non confrontational, common sensical and all in all a capable administrator (proved as Mayor of Buenos Aires City). He is a 56 year old engineer, was successful head of our most popular football team -Boca Juniors-  and is the scion of an extremely wealthy and controversial businessman father, Franco Macri.

There is hope, we only have to wait twenty eight days.

David Fuller's view

Thank you so much for this exceptionally informative follow-up on Argentina’s all-important election.  Governance is everything, as we often say and Argentineans appear to be in the process of making a historically important change for the benefit of their country.

Steady devaluation of the Argentine Peso against the US Dollar has contributed to impoverishment of people and led to capital flight.  The Argentina Merval Index of shares has offered some protection while also being flattered by devaluation.  Here it is in US Dollar terms.  With good governance Argentina could once again become a prosperous country to the benefit of all its citizens.  That means rejecting the Peronists November’s election.

(See also: Argentina’s stunning win for democracy, by David Smith for The Guardian)