The European Union is now closer to an existential crisis than at any time in its history.

For once, the issue is not directly economic. Although the financial problems of Greece are still bubbling away, the major threat to the EU is from the mass migration of people, an issue that is likely to come under even greater scrutiny following the attacks in Paris on Friday.

The 1957 Treaty of Rome laid down the freedom of movement of people between member states as one of its central tenets.

The Schengen agreement, allowing passport-free travel among member countries, uniting the workforces of 22 EU member states (not including the UK) plus Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, subsequently took this to its logical conclusion.

But in 1957, the then members of the EU had a total population of less than 200m – today, it’s 500m. Those who then envisaged the free movement of labour imagined a German might go to live and work in France, a French person might move to Germany, and so on.

In practice, after the major extension of the Union into the former eastern bloc, the predominant story has been of poorer people in the east moving to richer countries in the west.

This has left countries’ population levels at the mercy of these flows, thereby having major consequences for their labour markets, welfare systems, public services – and social cohesion.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Roger Bootle’s column.

I have always enjoyed pluralistic societies and multicultural cities, finding them to be generally more tolerant, culturally more diversified, and with a seemingly endless variety of restaurants as we now have in London.

However, the world’s population has mushroomed since I was invited to London in 1959.  Today, the EU’s expansion into Eastern Europe ensures that many people from that poorer region will be tempted to emigrate.  Fair enough, many are educated and skilled. 

However, the huge migration that we are currently seeing is from the Middle East and Northern Africa. 

This will continue because the vast wealth of OPEC’s oil producers has been rapidly disappearing since technology burst the region’s bubble prices in mid-2014.  Moreover, the downward slump in crude oil’s price was hastened by Saudi Arabia’s reckless gamble to pump ever more crude in an attempt to curtail supplies from every country with higher production costs.  So far, they have mostly increased production to offset partially the loss of revenue from lower oil prices.  This has hastened the collapse of OPEC and rapidly developing production technology ensures that the once-successful cartel cannot regain its former control over crude oil prices. 

OPEC’s vast wealth was mostly contained within the ruling tribes but there was usually enough left over to create a dependency culture among the regions’ populations.  They will be increasingly restless now that handouts are decreasing.  Many other poorer countries within the Middle East and North Africa are now in chaos, exacerbated by regional wars and the ISIS death cult. 

‘Fix Syria’, some say and the problem will be largely resolved.  This is unrealistic because much of Syria has been bombed to an uninhabitable state and it is just one small country.  Moreover, it would cost billions to rebuild Syria alone.  The reality is that large portions of the Middle East and North Africa are in chaos.  This is a problem with no easy or rapid solution.  Consequently, the migrant crisis in Europe has only just begun.