Until Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over its border with Syria on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin seemed to have convinced himself that Nato countries were just not serious about confronting Russia’s increasingly belligerent military conduct.

The Russian president recently made this view known when close aides warned him of Britain’s views on Russia. They told him that, when Britain outlined its National Security Strategy as part of the 2015 defence review, it would argue that, after Islamic State (Isil), Russia posed the greatest threat to global peace. But rather than being alarmed that his country was being cast in the same mould as the barbaric followers of Isil, Mr Putin simply shrugged. “Don’t worry,” he reassured his aides. “The British aren’t serious.”

And, given the impotent response by Britain and its Nato allies to Moscow’svarious acts of aggression over the past decade, who could blame the Russian leader for his nonchalance? Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, the Baltics, Syria: the roll call of Mr Putin’s unwelcome meddling in the affairs of other nations does not make happy reading for Western leaders. And yet, until yesterday, Nato had done precious little to persuade Mr Putin to rethink his cavalier attitude towards other nations’ borders.

Nato turned a blind eye when, in retaliation for Georgia’s attempts to join the Nato alliance in 2008, Moscow helped itself to the former Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Last year’s illegal annexation of Crimea is now a fait accompli so far as Russia is concerned, while Nato’s response to the Kremlin’s continued sabre-rattling in eastern Ukraine and the Baltics has been to conduct a few war games and bolster its air patrols.

So when Mr Putin embarked on his Syrian adventure earlier in the autumn, he had little reason to heed Nato’s blunt warnings of the serious consequences Russia might face if its warplanes continued to violate the airspace of Turkey, one of the alliance’s more volatile members.

Mr Putin’s belief that he could conduct Russia’s dealings in Syria with arrogant disregard for other regional concerns resulted in yesterday’s disaster. But as the world knows only too well from bitter experience, fundamental misunderstandings of this kind are how world wars get started.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Con Coughlin's column.

Putin has the world’s third largest military but a weak and underdeveloped economy.  That will hopefully restrain his military aggression somewhat, at least in terms of taking on Turkey which is a NATO member.  

Putin also wants US and European sanctions removed and that may have been discussed with Hollande of France today.  Nevertheless, the clash between Russia and Turkey is not over.  Therefore it could easily remain a concern.