Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan once bonded over their tough, independent styles of rule. Now, those alpha-attributes are stoking the crisis that erupted when a Turkish warplane locked onto a Russian bomber and shot it down.

The Russian president on Thursday stepped up his increasingly personal attacks. “Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey by depriving them of reason and common sense,” he said in his annual state-of-the-nation address. “They will regret again and again what they’ve done.”

Erdogan has threatened a harder line.

"If these reactions continue, of course we’re going to be left with no option but to take countermeasures,” Erdogan said Wednesday on a visit to Qatar, where he discussed alternatives to Russian natural-gas supplies.

The combustible mix makes the showdown between Putin and the commander-in-chief of NATO’s second-largest military unpredictable. Both sides have ruled out further armed confrontation, though they’ve threatened to attack anything they see as a threat in the crowded skies over Syria. Their foreign ministers met at a summit on Thursday in Belgrade, but there was no word of any progress as of 6:30 p.m. in Istanbul.

David Fuller's view

Hard-line rulers often create more genuine enemies in their own countries than other leaders find in genuine democracies where there are more checks and balances.  Erdogan was re-elected but he has undermined Turkey’s democracy by curbing fundamental freedoms of the press and judiciary rights.  This had made European Union membership less likely for Turkey, at least until the refugee/immigrant crisis and the threat from Daesh.  Today, with the EU in chaos, Turkey’s membership application appears to have moved several steps closer.  I wonder how many readers find that reassuring.

Putin remains a loose cannon in the war against Daesh, and just about everywhere else.  Risks have increased and stock markets investors have taken notice, judging from today’s downward dynamics, shown by the UK FTSE 100 (weekly & daily, German DAX (weekly & daily), Euro Stoxx 50 (weekly & daily) and other European Indices.  This brings them a lot closer to those mid-November lows that I have been mentioning in Audios.  Closes beneath those levels for more than a day or two would increase the possibility of a longer, somewhat deeper corrective phase for stock markets.        

(See also: Obama Urges Anti-Terror Focus Amid Putin-Erdogan Rankles and EU report on Turkey highlights setbacks in democracy, liberties)