I, too, am a Rand Paul fan…but, sadly, I’m afraid he doesn’t have a chance. He finished 5th in Iowa with 8,500 votes, vs. Cruz’s 52,000, Trump’s 45,000, Rubio’s 43,000 and Carson’s 17,000. Some talking heads are saying he doesn’t have the money behind him to stay in the race after New Hampshire (polling 4%) and maybe South Carolina (1%).

I was pleased to hear that more Hillary trouble is on the way - except she’ll get away with it, win the nomination and the election - at least that’s the way it looks now.

David Fuller's view

Thanks for a clear summary which makes sense to me.

I also like Rand Paul but he does not look presidential.  That may sound trivial but it certainly counts with plenty of voters.  I think Rubio is in a stronger position. 

I maintain that Republicans all but threw the race away by declaring themselves against gay marriage, an issue the country now supports.

There is plenty of uncertainty which makes all forecasts difficult.  Nevertheless, Hillary is very polished, not to mention Bill.  Her problem, apparently, is that plenty of US voters do not trust her. 

Have a look at the fascinating poll in this article from the Independent: US Election 2016: The difference between Clinton and Sanders in one chart.  Iowan Democrats think Hillary can win and that she is very experienced.  However, they do not think she is caring or honest.  Those negative perceptions are very difficult to change.