Something has gone wrong with global demand. The 4 biggest economies in the world are the US, Eurozone, China and Japan. Combined, they have a GDP of nearly US$55 trillion or 70% of the world’s GDP.

The next 4 charts show what has happened to the YoY growth in their imports (measured in USD).

They’re all shrinking.

David Fuller's view

Here is Bernard Tan’s report.

For any technician, the start to 2016 was a sobering wakeup call.  Moreover, the first six weeks of the year were among the worst on record for stock markets.

Some of the selling seen may be irrational and there has been more than enough uncertainty to make global investors very cautious.  A technical rally commenced this week, although insufficient support building has occurred to sustain it beyond the short term. 

This service has maintained in recent months that we needed to see a better performance from China and also for depressed commodities, not least crude oil.  That may be occurring although the evidence is tentative to date.  If Bernard Tan’s recession forecast is correct, the cyclical bear market for most stock markets is not over.