For many of the key magnitudes that should feature in any assessment of the likely gains and losses from Brexit, it is impossible to come up with hard and fast numbers. Accordingly, it will be extremely difficult for the ordinary voter to make up their mind. In these circumstances, influential specialists may have a major impact on debate. 

Although business as a whole is divided, it seems as though a majority of the leaders of big business are inclined towards the “Remain” camp, and many are prepared to say so publicly. This might well persuade a few waiverers that the economic case does indeed stack up in favour of staying in. But they should beware. There is a key reason why the verdict of big business is likely to be misleading.  

Let’s say the economic costs and benefits of Brexit exactly balance out to zero. Nevertheless, there would still be winners and losers. It is important to understand who these would be. 

The prime factors responsible for different entities’ gains or losses from Brexit are: exposure to the possibility of having to pay the common external tariff on exports to the EU; not having to pay the tariff on imports from the rest of the world; the ability to buy food at world prices rather than Common Agricultural Policy prices; exposure to whatever the Government does with the £10bn or so that it would not have to pay to the European budget; and the ability to benefit from the relaxation of EU regulations. 

Companies that might lose from Brexit would be primarily those that export heavily into the European Union, do not import that much from the rest of the world and do not do that much business in the UK. To continue to sell into the European single market, they would have to comply with European regulations, even if those regulations were rescinded by the UK.

The gainers from Brexit would be consumers – with lower tariff-free and CAP-free prices for food and other goods – and a whole raft of businesses that don’t do any exporting to the EU, most likely small and medium-sized enterprises. Neither of these groups will figure in the deliberations of big business leaders. 

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Roger Bootle's article.

The good news is that UK citizens can vote in June to either remain in or leave the EU.  It is a matter of personal choice, as it should be. 

Friendly countries in Europe or abroad appear to want the UK to remain within the EU.  That may be mildly flattering but when I look at the EU’s political and economic trajectory since the introduction of the Euro, I mostly see instability, increasing tensions and an erosion of democracy. Only the EU’s current leaders can change that course and if they do not it will break apart.