There are few presidents who have presided over more robust stock market performance than President Obama, as the S&P 500 has gained more than 140% since he took office in January of 2009.

But most Americans think we can do better. In a survey conducted of 2,001 registered voters by media and polling company and Fortune partner Morning Consult, 70% of those questioned said that the country has “gotten off on the wrong track.” And when asked about the issue most important to them in the upcoming election, 37% said the economy, well ahead of the next most important issue, security, which was most important for just 17% of voters.

So who do Americans think can get the economy back on the right track? Donald Trump, if their expectations for the stock market are any guide. According to the Fortune-Morning Consult poll, when asked, “under which president would the stock market do better,” more answered Donald Trump than any of the remaining candidates, including Hillary Clinton.

Not only does Donald Trump win on this question by a healthy margin, a deeper look into the numbers shows the diversity of his support.

David Fuller's view

Are the responses to these two poll shown in Fortune’s article based mainly on analysis or emotion?  I suspect it is the latter.  Many US voters are frustrated and concerned about the state of the economy, to which Trump promises populist solutions.  We see similar situations in most other countries which elect their leaders by the democratic process.   

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However, in most developed economies the political leader plays only a small role in what happens to the stock market.  In the US, many investors would prefer a policy of benign neglect for the stock market, provided the economy is in reasonably good shape. 

President Obama scores well in terms of benign neglect towards Wall Street.  This confirms another point: in developed economies central banks are usually the main influence on stock markets.  The Fed, the BoE, the ECB and the BoJ have been unusually accommodative in their monetary policies since 2009.  This has helped stock markets, arguably considerably more than their economies, even in the crisis prone EU.   

For this reason most stock markets should continue to avoid the replay of 2008 which many people feared in January and February.  However, the overall outlook is decidedly mixed at present, against a background of previous technical deterioration.  Stock markets are also overbought following the five to six week rally from mid-February’s lows.  I continue to expect a longer period of choppy ranging.

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