A Vote to Stay in the EU Is Not a Vote for Europe
Here is the latter section of this topical article by Clive Crook for Bloomberg:
In the longer term, Britain retains its blocking power over treaty changes: It can’t steer the broader project, but it can stop anybody else steering it. Other EU governments aren’t interested in revising the treaties just now anyway, because the union is unpopular elsewhere too, which would make it hard to get the changes ratified by national parliaments. Still, a point will come when treaty changes are needed to fix what’s broken in the EU economy. The reformers will have to deal with Britain.
In the meantime, the U.K. could be more deliberate about dragging its feet. It could follow the example of many other EU governments, which regard a commitment (such as a fiscal target) as binding only if they feel like being bound. Brits are a bit priggish about seeing promises to other governments as undertakings rather than aspirations.
Having refused to adopt the euro, the U.K. is already semi-detached from the EU’s main economic project. It has opt-outs in other areas of policy too. This distance is going to widen under the pressure of heightened euro-skeptic sentiment following a vote to stay. Over time, as the euro area pursues closer integration in fiscal and financial policy, Britain will become even more of an anomaly -- and demands for Brexit won’t subside.
Eventually, the EU might come to agree that Brexit makes sense. I’ve argued before that Britain’s best bet in Europe is to be exasperating. Sure, it’s been pretty exasperating already, but it can do better. Remember, the biggest risk in Brexit is that the EU will punish Britain for leaving. The answer is obvious. Vote to stay -- then bring the EU to the point where it will pay Britain to go.
I doubt that the floundering EU will be paying any country to leave. Instead, it appears that the entire developed world wants the UK to maintain its current role within the EU, for various reasons mostly involving their perceptions of global security rather than any clear understanding of the UK’s best interests.
Fair enough and it would not help the UK if it was cited as the trigger for the EU’s eventual breakup. The EU’s collective mentality is similar to investors who refuse to change course and cut their losses caused by unsuccessful speculations.
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