David,

I was interested to read your article in Friday’s comment of the day about the result of the Scottish election. I agree it was a good result from Ruth Davidson’s point of view, but it is likely that Sturgeon will use the Greens to help her force through taxation policies which will be disastrous and there won’t be much opposition from the Socialists under Dugdale. The Greens won’t support the “head gardner” approach of the SNP – otherwise known as the much derided policy of each child having a brainwasher from birth to the age of eighteen. I am sure she will find a suitable crumb to throw the Greens so far as taxation is concerned to buy them off.

There was an interesting article in the Telegraph (Scottish edition) wherein Stephen Tierney who is the director of the Edinburgh Centre for Constitutional Law had this to say –“If the UK Government argues that the concession in 2012 was an extraordinary one –ie to test the independence issue which had been on the table for nearly half a century- then it can reasonably say that an independence referendum cannot be held again for a generation given the costs that secession potentially entails for the state. In other words many would argue that even a clear manifesto commitment to hold a referendum in the life of the next Parliament could be refused unless another extraordinary event intervenes, such as Brexit. I think the key to any refusal is not that it is not in the manifesto or only vaguely alluded to in the manifesto but that secession is an extraordinary issue and STATES CANNOT FUNCTION IN A STABLE WAY IF THIS ISSUE CAN BE RAISED AT ALMOST ANY TIME. As the SNP have only one policy ie the threat of independence I fear that Scotland will be in a dire state for the next five years exacerbated by their taxation policies which will simply drive the wealth creators away and without them there can be no widespread prosperity. I hope that Ruth Davidson is ready to pick up the leaking bucket in five years’ time.

Best wishes

David Fuller's view

Many thanks for your insights on this topic, which I know is a considerable worry for subscribers in Scotland. 

The good news is that the SNP has peaked and the Conservative Party is back in the game, following Ruth Davidson’s sensible leadership.  The former point shows that the SNP’s trend in popularity has stalled, albeit at a high level, while the latter point means that Scottish Labour is a diminishing threat to the UK in the next UK General Election.  That could be very important, although perhaps less so for residents of Scotland. 

It will take more time for voters in Scotland to lose their enthusiasm for the SNP and its leader Nicola Sturgeon, following their respective high-water marks at the December 2015 General Election.  Therefore, I think you are right that Sturgeon will force through her taxation policies, targeting Scotland’s wealthier residents, probably with support from the Greens as you suggest. 

Regrettably, the next several years are likely to be difficult for Scotland, not least as more wealth creators will most likely be driven away, adding to the economy’s problems.  That would weaken the SNP’s hold on power, although it could take more than one election cycle to remove them from office.  Without a victory for Brexit in the UK’s referendum, I think it will be a long time before Scotland holds another vote on independence.