Earth Relentless Warming Just Hit a Terrible New Threshold
Comment of the Day

May 18 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Earth Relentless Warming Just Hit a Terrible New Threshold

Here is the opening and a brief latter section from this sobering report:

The number of climate records broken in the last few years is stunning. But here's a new measure of misery: Not only did we just experience the hottest April in 137 years of record keeping, but it was the 12th consecutive month to set a new record.

It's been relentless. May 2015 was the hottest May in records dating back to 1880. That was followed by the hottest June. Then came a record July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February, March—and, we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday—the hottest April. In an age of rising temperatures, monthly heat records have become all too common. Still, a string of 12 of them is without precedent.  

Perhaps even more remarkable is the magnitude of the new records. The extremes of recent months are such that we're only four months into 2016 and already there's a greater than 99 percent likelihood that this year will be the hottest on record, according to Gavin Schmidt, who directs NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.  

The chart below shows earth's warming climate, measured by land and sea, dating back to 1880. 

And

To be sure, some of this is the result of a monster El Niño weather pattern lingering in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño may finally be coming to an end, shifting this summer to a cooling La Niña by the time Arctic ice coverage reaches its nadir, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The agency gives a 75 percent chance of a La Niña pattern developing this year. 

Beyond these cyclical changes, however, there seems no escaping the larger trend that we live on a planet that's warming rapidly. Coastal cities are flooding more regularly, wildfires are starting early, and the world is in the midst of the most prolonged die-off of the ocean's coral ever witnessed.

Perhaps most worrisome, if recent trends are any indication, is that it won't be long before this record-hot year looks cool, compared with what's to come. 

David Fuller's view

This trend has been clear for a long time, although many people have not wanted to acknowledge it for understandable reasons.  Also, global warming has been good for some of us… so far.  I enjoy London’s mild winters, with a few garden plants blooming throughout the year.  Northern agriculture has been a net beneficiary of milder winters and increased moisture, leading to longer growing seasons.  A slightly wetter climate also relieves drought problems in some arid areas. 

Nevertheless, these gains are very likely to be more than offset by the trend of increased warming which is not only global but also accelerating.  Potential risks for countries closer to the equator are severe.  Unless the rate at which global temperatures are rising is checked, either naturally or with our help, coastal cities will be increasingly susceptible to flooding, with considerable consequences for GDP in those regions.       

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