Bernard Tan: Was Draghi Correct After All?
My thanks to this experienced, independent analyst for his latest report. Here is a brief sample from the introduction, and you will want to see all the graphics which are posted in the Subscriber’s Area:
Growth in European imports, measured in USD, has been accelerating from deep negative towards zero.
Another way to think about it is to ask how much Eurozone buys from the rest of the world compared to the US i.e. how much of global output does it consume relative to the US.
I find the above chart interesting. We are used to thinking of the US as the big buyer of goods for the export economies around the world but in fact, until 2014, the Eurozone bought more than the US! The crisis brought demand down drastically but the chart shows we could be emerging from the worst of the Eurozone crisis.
Here is Bernard Tan's report.
My view, frequently stated, is that the EU’s economic performance would have been far worse if Super Mario Draghi had not been President of the European Central Bank since November 2011. He is arguably the outstanding central banker of his generation and also has the most challenging job. Assuming Mario Draghi stays until his eight-year term expires at the end of October 2019, his replacement will most likely come from Germany. At least that is what some within the German government are lobbying for.
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