David Fuller's view

While I was away, the last in my incrementally lower bids for silver (weekly & daily) was fulfilled at $16.18 for the July contract on 29^th May.  On return, I placed a tight stop on my initial and most expensive silver trade during the recent pullback.  These are usually a too conservative mistake and this was stopped out at $17.20 versus my purchase at $16.73 on 19^th May.  Stops may offer peace of mind but they are too often profit reducers.  It is better, at least for me, to trade sensibly, hopefully, and well within my capital for these trades.  

Prices above include all spread-bet dealing costs.

My June UK FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Index short trades, also mentioned in the lead article above, have been challenging, not least because big resources companies listed in the UK were recovering and polls mostly had ‘Remain’ comfortably in front until recently.  However, they expire officially on 17^th June, meaning that positions on automatic rollover – my usual policy – would actually be repurchased late on the 16^th and new shorts opened on the 17^th.  Ordinarily, that would not be a problem if I was happy to retain the short positions but I could see some sharp reversals if the ‘Remain’ vote wins on the 23^rd. 

Currently, I have yet to decide how I will deal with this, although I may decide to let the automatic rollover go ahead, and will have the first three days next week before the vote on Thursday 23^rd June.  For leveraged traders, this feels like more of a gamble than usual, which is somewhat disconcerting.  Meanwhile, my hunch is that many ‘Leave’ voters may feel more passionate about the outcome than the ‘Remain’ camp. 

I am not considering any further changes in my remaining long-term investment positions.  However, a sharp selloff in shares on the uncertainty of a ‘Leave’ vote would create another buying opportunity in stock markets.