Whatever the result of Britain's referendum on the EU we can be sure of one thing: there will not be a global financial crisis the next day.

Nothing dreadful will suddenly happen. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Olympian fraternity of money printers will stand with the Bank of England,ready to flood the international system with liquidity.

The central banks have had months to prepare, and they have prepared. Currency swap facilities are in place to cover the dollar funding needs of UK-based banks, and many of these are well-insulated branches of American, European, Asian, and Mid-East banks in any case.

The circumstances are nothing like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, a Black Swan event that caught the world off guard and metastasized only because the US authorities unwisely choose to make an example of the hapless bank and let the debacle occur. Nobody will fret piously about moral hazard this time.

Central banks have learned the lessons of Lehman and of Europe's debt crisis: that events can spin out of control if they fail to an act as a lender-of-last resort in moments of extreme stress.

Yes, we must heed the warnings of experts, so long as they are acting in their expert capacity, and this is where the British government and its allies in the global nomenklatura have badly muddied the waters. The Treasury's claims of a 3.6pc to 6pc crash in output are patent propaganda - intended to frighten people - since they start from the political premise that Britain's authorities will entirely abdicate their fiscal and monetary responsibilities.

More worthwhile are comments from George Soros, the speculator turned philanthropist, and a man I admire for his humanitarian campaigns, as well as for his heroic role in liberating Britain from Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

Mr Soros tells us that Brexit will not be as benign as 1992 when the Bank of England was able to slash interest rates, end recession, and head off a collapse of the housing market. This time we will suffer all the pain of devaluation - 15pc, or 20pc, or more - without the cuts in rates.  And we have enemies.

"Today, there are speculative forces in the markets that are much bigger and more powerful. They will be eager to exploit any miscalculations by the British government or British voters," he said.

This cannot pass. We are not in recession, and we do not need rate cuts. If sterling really fell by 20pc, it would be painful for eurozone exporters but a net economic stimulus for Britain in strict macro-economic terms.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of AE-P’s column.

I certainly respect George Soros but I do not think Sterling would fall anything like 20% in the event of a majority Brexit vote, which neither the betting shops nor the markets are indicating on the eve of this historic referendum. 

However, if I am wrong and the Remain vote is defeated on Thursday, I think an exaggerated plunge by sterling would be a matter of now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t, due to thin volume (unusual for reserve currency markets) and the aggressive speculators which he mentions.  In fact, I think whatever the outcome of the referendum, volume on Friday will be dominated by high-frequency trading programmes.  We have previously seen how easily and quickly they can generate momentum in either direction and many markets will be in play. 

I will be away on Thursday afternoon and all day on Friday, so I will miss whatever drama occurs.  Markets may not do much in the event of a victory for Remain because that is what they are discounting on Wednesday evening.  A drama will unfold on Friday if a Leave victory surprises markets.

Even though I will be away, I have left some opportunistic trading orders in the markets.  Should Leave win, I have orders to buy GBP/USD below 140. Note: this chart is only updated through the 21st but has been up to 1.4844 this evening.  If Leave wins, as I suspect, silver could slide.  I am currently out of that market but have some bids below $17 and down to slightly above $16.   

(See also: Brexit referendum: The UK could be just 24 hours away from leaving the EU, from The Sydney Morning Herald)