Now that the campaign is over, it is time for the consequences. What will they be? And how should economic policy respond? 

Despite the warnings of disaster from the Remain campaign, at first, nothing very much is going to change.  David Cameron has suggested that it will be three months before we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which lays down a period of up to two years of negotiations between the departing country and the EU. But there is no reason why this period should necessarily be three months. 

There is a strong argument for making it as long as possible, effectively doing pre-negotiations before the legal process starts. This would avoid the loss of bargaining power that would follow from being boxed into the Article 50 timetable. Meanwhile, Britain’s trading relationships would continue unaffected. 

And:

One major consequence of Brexit that could have a significant impact on the economy is what has happened to the pound. This has been widely portrayed as some sort of disaster. The truth is exactly the opposite. The lower pound will help to improve Britain’s trade balance, and that will boost our GDP, thereby encouraging investment. 

Given this, and given the current extremely low rate of inflation, the Bank of England should not make any attempt to protect the pound. Indeed, the greatest policy challenge it will face over the next year or two is how to keep the pound down to its new competitive level. It should be prepared to reduce interest rates and even to restart the QE programme, if necessary. 

What’s more, under no circumstances should the Chancellor embark on a renewed bout of fiscal tightening. Of course, if the economy performs just as well as before, or even better, helped by the low pound, then there is no reason for the public finances to deteriorate. But if the economy does slow markedly and the government deficit widens, the Chancellor should simply accept this. 

There is a case for fiscal action – but of a very different sort. As well as a programme of deregulation, we now also need a plan for even lower corporate tax rates. Both of these will take time to be developed, but there is a lot to be gained by announcing soon the direction of travel. 

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Roger Bootle's column.

No offence to drama queens but markets often fit that description better than anything or anyone else. 

The good long-term news is that without the EU’s bureaucratic leash the UK economy will have the opportunity to be even more entrepreneurial and increase trade with the world’s faster growing regions.  The good short-term news is that the UK economy now has a more competitive currency, which will reduce the severity and duration of any recession in response to temporary Brexit uncertainty from Q2 and in Q3 of 2016.