Trade between Britain and the EU creates far more jobs on the continent than it creates in the UK, giving the remaining 27 nations a substantial incentive to strike a positive trade deal with Britain, according to researchers at the think tank Civitas.

The new analysis estimates that 3.6m jobs in the UK are linked to trade with the EU, while 5.8m EU jobs are linked to trade with the UK.

Every major EU economy is in the same position, according to Civitas, meaning that all of the biggest players have strong reasons to come to an open trading agreement with the UK rather than seeking to punish the leaving nation.

Even among the smaller countries, each one has a higher proportion of jobs linked to the UK than the other way around.

“Based on the potential impact on jobs, each EU country should be aware of the significant economic benefit in terms of jobs stemming from trade with the UK,” said Civitas.

“The EU does arguably have to negotiate as a bloc. However, each of the 27 remaining national governments, with between 1.5 and 9.5pc of employment linked to UK trade, should be negotiating in the interests of those that democratically elected them.”

The report, written by research fellow Justin Protts, also argues that the UK is in a sense in a stronger position that the other EU countries.

David Fuller's view

The UK is definitely in a stronger position, at least in terms of jobs and exports at risk.  However, resentment, envy and growing dissatisfaction with the EU among 27 countries, plus the hazards of group think, are significant obstacles in the path to an economically logical result.

It is worth trying to get a good deal on Brexit, not least because that is also in the EU’s economic interests.  However, their official line, so far, is against preferential treatment for Britain.  While this is partly an emotional reaction by the rejected, the fear of further unravelling among the 27 countries is also a factor.  Bravado aside, it should be clear to Mrs May government where EU red lines really will not be withdrawn, well before the end of 2017.  If the EU still refuses to return full control of our borders and fishing rights, and if it block free access to the single market, then our best alternative, in my opinion, is the so called Hard Brexit, without further delay.  

Here is a PDF of Tim Wallace's article.