The US economy is likely to grow, partly as a result of Mr Trump’s reflation plans, which could in itself provide a fourth supportive factor. After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services. In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.

“Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move — the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary,” Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week. “As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.”

Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch. If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty, or if Mr Trump unleashes a debt binge that goes bust, that will not create stability.

But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing of Wall Street. If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash some animal spirits of their own. Bickering about Brexit is not a good place to start.

David Fuller's view

New York is the obvious choice for any financial firm which chooses to reduce its business in London due to Brexit uncertainty.  However, the UK has a government capable of taking full advantage of the potential following Britain’s decision to leave the EU, including the provision of a very competitive economy.

There is a good chance that London will become an even stronger and more influential financial sector following the UK’s departure from the EU.  I wish New York well but it faces as many uncertainties as London.  Smart multinational businesses will do best by taking a glass half-full view of both London and New York.  

Here is a PDF of Gillian Tett’s article.