The Autumn Statement used to be a pretty humdrum affair, simply giving an update on the official  forecasts for the economy and public finances. In recent years, though, it has taken on the  character of a mini-Budget. It needs to revert to its earlier status. 

But this Wednesday may not be the right time to downgrade it. Mr Hammond has been in the job for only a few months and needs to make an impact. Meanwhile, the economy is at a critical juncture. 

Mind you, having just had Guy Fawkes night, there is no need for fireworks this week. A number of  commentators have accused “Spreadsheet Phil” of being dull. But seeing a former shadow chancellor disporting himself on the dancefloor is surely enough entertainment from the ranks of chancellors, actual and nearly. Dull but competent is fine by me.  

Mr Hammond’s task is made more demanding by greater than usual forecasting difficulties. Under George Osborne, the Treasury sub-contracted forecasting to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). We all know that the record of most economic forecasters is pretty poor. Sadly, the OBR’s own is no exception.

The big forecasting issue at the moment is the impact of the Brexit vote. The forecasting establishment is mostly gloomy. It believes the impact on aggregate demand will be negative as the squeeze on consumers’ real incomes resulting from the lower pound – and the reduction in corporate investment caused by uncertainty – will outweigh any boost to exports. 

More importantly, it also believes Brexit will harm the UK’s medium-term productive potential because of reduced trade and investment. Yet this group of forecasters recently has been even more than usually inaccurate. The much-heralded Brexit recession still hasn’t appeared. Indeed, last week’s retail sales figures showed, yet again, how resilient the economy has proved to be.

David Fuller's view

We should learn a lot more about Chancellor Philip Hammond tomorrow.  I am optimistic, if that is the right word, that he will be bolder than Roger Bootle suggests.  That would involve risks (what doesn’t?) but the post-Brexit Autumn Statement needs to be bold, outlining unambiguous steps – from taxation to infrastructure – sending a message that the UK is a great place to do business.  

Here is a  PDF of Roger Bootle's column.