Dear David, 

Among the various consequences of the Trump victory suggested by the author of this article is that the protectionism that the new USA administration will apply will have negative consequences of multinational firms - i.e. our favourite Autonomies. What do you think about this hypothesis? Regards

David Fuller's view

Many thanks for the interesting article and your topical question relevant to many of us.

I am in general agreement with Anatole Kaletsky’s article.  I also think we can be more confident about the positive points for the US economy, although the Achilles’ heel will most likely be the risk of a too strong US Dollar, which would be a headwind for corporate profits, not least those of multinational Autonomies. A too strong Dollar would also cause some havoc among emerging market economies which borrowed heavily in the US currency. 

Additionally, the negative points cited by Kaletsky, particularly protectionism, would be a problem although we will not know how far along this path Trump will go, until he is in office.  If it is just a warning that the USA will no longer be a pushover for double standards on trade, this may not be a problem. 

Lastly, where I disagree with Kaletsky, the inward looking EU does not need Trump to be in danger of breaking up.  It has been on that path for a long time.