And now your goal, as Mr Putin, is nothing less than European impotence. You want to make it impossible for them to pursue hostile actions such as sanctions on your cronies, expanding Nato or refusing to build new gas pipelines. If that can be achieved, your regime will be richer financially, safer politically, and seen at home as the tough and effective leadership that helps the average Russian to ignore the parlous long‑term state of the country. 

With the election of Mr Trump, there is a path to fulfilling this goal, provided it is done with care and cunning. First it involves consolidating the position of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, regardless of how much violence has to be unleashed before Trump’s inauguration. That opens the way to offering the new US administration an end to the war in Syria on Russia’s terms, with Mr Assad in power in most of the country, and the whole world able to see that you can count on Russia as an ally, but never trust the support of the West. 

Having dealt with that early in 2017, the next step is to use it as the basis for a rapprochement with America, but cautiously, so that congressional critics of Mr Trump are not given too much ammunition. A good way to disarm suspicion is to offer to go back into one or two of the international agreements – on arms control and nuclear facilities – recently abrogated by Moscow. There will be some relief and even praise in the Western media, hailing a “new era” in relations and analysing Mr Putin’s good diplomacy and return to responsibility. 

Simultaneously, the extraordinary success and skill being developed by Russia in manipulating Western elections will offer rich pickingsin 2017. The universal assumption for many years that social media and the internet would be agents of freedom has left most people slow to grasp that new technologies can be turned into powerful means of authoritarian power – for the first time reaching deep into other nations and societies. 

Mr Trump has already disavowed the CIA’s findings that Russian hacking was designed to promote his victory. That the president-elect of the USA refuses to believe well-founded research by his own agencies is an unmitigated triumph for Moscow. Such tactics can now be used to promote the election of pliable candidates across Europe, with the scope to fund them as well. 

The French National Front has already borrowed €9 million from a Russian bank. A combination of donations and social media operations can help to push disorientated European voters the right way. Recent months have seen a pro-Russian president elected in Bulgaria, and a new government friendly to Moscow in Moldova. The Netherlands rejected the EU treaty with Ukraine in a referendum, and growing parties like the Five Star Movement in Italy have Russian ties. 

Add a bit of military intimidation and internal agitation in the Baltic States – one third of Latvians are ethnic Russians – and another part of Europe will feel weakened. Then subtly help opposition parties in Germany’s autumn elections to undermine Angela Merkel. Manipulate politics in Montenegro so it doesn’t want to join Nato. Hug Serbia and keep Bosnia paralysed by the same techniques. Keep pushing up the price of oil by deals with the Arabs, so that Russian gas is sought-after. 

Do all these things and soon the EU, particularly without the UK, will lack the will to challenge Russia. In foreign affairs and energy policy, Europe is only as strong as its weakest link, and soon this strategy will make sanctions impossible, western security weaker and buying Russian energy impossible to resist. Mr Putin will be able to do as he wishes, with whom he wishes.

Mr Trump is a great advocate of doing deals. The first step in doing a good deal is to have your eyes open to the strategy of the other side. Europeans certainly need to spend more on defence. 

But America needs to see what could be about to unfold: under cover of better relations, the division, weakening and neutering of the West. 

David Fuller's view

‘Once a KGB operative, always a KGB operative’.  This old adage certainly applies to Putin, who had a rough two years following the collapse of crude oil prices in 2H 2014.  Naturally, Russian citizens did far worse. 

However, Putin is in a somewhat stronger position today.  Brent Crude oil is trading above $50 following the belated decision to reduce supplies somewhat, in line with OPEC.  For Russia, this is probably no more than the reality that it will see another reduction in output due to the harsh Siberian winter.  Having invested heavily in military equipment, Russia has also increased the sale of weapons to Iranians and other regimes which are either unable to buy from the West or disinclined to do so.  At home, Moscow’s constant stream of daily propaganda, along with Putin’s ‘heroic’ ability to see off evil doers, continues to embellish his tough guy patriot image.  So far, this is just enough to keep a lid on protests at home, although this may not always be the case. 

For now, Putin can only benefit from the European Union’s downward spiral.  Regarding the USA, he was the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump on his Presidential Election victory.  Putin is presumably delighted that Rex Tillerson, Exxon CEO has been nominated for Secretary of State, having granted him a Russian state honour – the Order of Friendship in 2013. 

“Jaw jaw is better than war war”, as Winston Churchill said.  I also assume that Trump and Tillerson are sufficiently shrewd to see through Putin, not least following the latest massacres in Aleppo.     

Here is a PDF of William Hague’s column.

(See also: Moscow has the world’s attention.  For Putin, that’s a win, by David Filipov for The Washington Post)