Apart from anything else, this story shows the extraordinary effect of propaganda and polarisation. If Mr Putin had hacked Mr Trump’s emails in order to assist Mrs Clinton, imagine how the conservative movement would have raged at the infamy of the hacker and the treason of the candidate favoured by Russia. Instead, the most self-consciously patriotic voters in the United States went for the man supported by the biggest enemy of their patria on the planet.

One must, of course, give credit where credit is due. The Western leader most to blame for the global advance of Putin’s Russia is not Mr Trump – who is still not in office – but President Obama. His preference for displaying virtue over exercising power has let down America’s friends everywhere – Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines and even, in a mild way, Britain – and encouraged America’s foes – Iran, Syria, Cuba, Russia. Hardly any effort has been made by the Obama administration to expose Mr Putin’s behaviour, counter his threats, galvanise European allies or trace, publish and impede the workings of Russian money, espionage and cyber-war in the West. 

Donald Trump might turn out to be bolder. It is possible that Mr Trump’s correct perception that Nato has become increasingly hollow will be the prelude to his reviving it as an alliance which means what it says. In which case, Secretary of State Tillerson’s ability to talk directly to Putin might come in handy. But Mr Trump did not just win the election by promising, as all of his predecessors since Roosevelt have done, that America will continue to underwrite the world order during his presidency. If I were living in Poland or Estonia, let alone Ukraine, I wouldn’t be betting my future on him. 

I wouldn’t do so even in Britain. You have to be over 90 to have an adult memory of a time when the United States did not stand behind this country in global affairs, so we may not be quick to recognise the symptoms if this is changing. But if it is, we have almost no idea what will hit us. 

David Fuller's view

As a long-term optimist, I am hoping this column by Charles Moore is too pessimist.  Additionally, his paragraph on President Obama above (my emphasis in bold) seems harsh under the circumstances.  Americans had had enough of wars after the costly invasion of Iraq and wars of attrition by ground troops in other regions of the deeply troubled Middle East. 

Nevertheless, Obama’s “preference for displaying virtue over exercising power has let down America’s friends”, as Charles Moore says above.  It was seen as weakness, although the President’s use of precision missiles to target known terrorists was both controversial, extremely effective, and far from a sign of weakness.

What about the markets?

What this article above and a number of others now circulating in the press may suggest is an increasing level of caution following the strong Trump rally.  While this is not yet suggested by the VIX Index, currently testing its lows, I would keep an eye on this indicator.  A clear upward dynamic and or a move back above 15 would be a warning.  Many stock markets have had a good run since November 8^th, not least on Wall Street.  For tax reasons, this is likely to be followed by some deferred profit taking as we enter the New Year.  Moreover, every equity investor will remember January 2016’s sharp selloff.  We should not be surprised by an increase in volatility as we enter 2017.  Seasonal factors remain favourable but a considerable amount of good news has been discounted recently.  

Here is a PDF of Charles Moore's article.