Talk about the breakup of the euro is fashionable again. With populists such as Marine Le Pen trying to storm the establishment and the popularity of the single currency in decline, executives and investors, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, say nothing can be ruled out. At the same time, the euro has already survived a number of scares since its inception in 1999, with the political and economic elites proving willing to do whatever it takes to support the currency.

We took a look at three scenarios that could lead to the euro splintering—and three that could see the currency coming through the populist wave in even stronger shape. And we poll expert opinion on the chances they could happen.

David Fuller's view

Natural scientists are now talking about the real possibility of cloning a woolly mammoth and possibly various varieties of dinosaurs, so it is not beyond the bounds of imagination to assume that the euro could be kept alive for a few more years before it becomes extinct.

The problem, however, is that Europeans would much rather have the woolly mammoth than the euro.  Not everyone agrees, of course.  John Major, Tony Blair and Barrack Obama still think the euro is a wonderful idea, presumably because they have never had to live with it as their own currency.

Personally, I think Bloomberg’s article is much more optimistic about the euro than European views on the streets.  After all, few people other than unelected bureaucrats in Brussels actually like the euro, although institutional people quoted above often favour the status quo, at least in the comparatively short term.  More importantly, most ordinary people have not benefitted from the euro.  Those who are begrudgingly resigned to living with the single currency often feel that way because they are told that any other alternative would be infinitely worse.  Project fear is a powerful argument, especially if your personal circumstances have deteriorated since the euro was launched on January 1^st, 1999. 

Even if Geert Wilders in Holland and, more importantly, Marine Le Pen in France are defeated, the euro’s problems are far from over.  This is likely to be only the beginning of Europe’s anti-euro campaigns.  Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement is likely to be a strong candidate in Italy’s general election which must be held between late March 2018 and 23 May.  Thereafter, we should not be surprised if more mainstream candidates form anti-euro and anti-EU parties.  Increasingly, that is what the European public will want after so many years of slow GDP growth and rising unemployment in many countries.