The risk that Scotland would leave the UK was one of the main reasons I voted Remain last June, despite my lack of enthusiasm for many aspects of the European Union. Entirely predictably, in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, an attempt to pull the UK apart as we negotiate our exit from the EU has now begun.

There can be no going back on the decision nevertheless taken by the British people as a whole to leave. But the Government will now have to fight a war on two fronts, with each making an impact on the other. Every time EU negotiators warn there might be no deal or complain of British intransigence, they will be adding grist to the mill of the Scottish nationalists. And with each demand for special treatment for Scotland, those nationalists will weaken the ability of UK ministers to maintain tough positions that will lead to the best deal for the whole of the United Kingdom.

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech on Monday morning showed that she has identified the seizing of this moment of extreme pressure on the Westminster government as the one best hope of destroying the UK. It also demonstrated that she will use any argument to achieve her ends – even complaining that Scotland faces ‘‘the prospect of a centralisation of power at Westminster’’ when the Scottish parliament has in fact acquired major additional powers, some of which it has not even used.

David Fuller's view

Perhaps I am an incurable optimist but I think (hope) William Hague is too pessimistic in this column.  Yes, the UK Government faces some very tough negotiations and the Jean-Claude Juncker school of thought may be more interested in “punishing” Britain if only to deter similar exit moves from other EU countries.  That would be a desperate, intellectually bankrupt strategy. 

While the process of Brexit will be messy, I maintain that the UK holds the upper hand, not least because it is prepared to walk away from a bad deal.  UK negotiators would obviously like a mutually good deal with the EU, but that may not be possible, at least not initially.  However, if it walks away with no deal, it knows that European countries, including Germany, will soon be queuing up to sign mutually sensible trade deals with an independent UK.

Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon’s cynical opportunism may remain irritating but it will soon be forgotten.  She has little leverage and her popularity is now in decline because of Scotland’s weak economic performance, despite receiving the biggest subsidies within the UK.    

Some Scots have a ‘Braveheart’ resentment of the English which Sturgeon has continued to fan.  Nevertheless, there is no groundswell of opinion for another independence referendum. I think most Scots recognise that Sturgeon is following a ruinous path. 

Here is a PDF of William Hague's column.