Dear David, Following your post "The End of Petrol and Diesel Cars? All Vehicles Will be Electric by 2025, Says Expert", you may find interesting an opinion of Mark Schwartz, global head of analytics from S&P Global Platts, whom I interviewed recently. In particular, he says that it will take decades for EVs to make their way first into new car sales, and then to become a significant part of the entire car fleet. And that's why oil is here to stay for a while, in his view. We also talk about 'peak oil demand' theory being discussed now and I recollect 'peak supply' claims back in 2007. Video can be seen here -  or at our Facebook page -  It's in English (with Russian subtitles). Best regards, Mikhail

David Fuller's view

My thanks to Mikhail Overchanko for his long-term interest in the FTM service and also his interview with Mark Schwartz, which is in English.

Obviously no one knows how quickly EVs will replace those which are petrol driven, or even if that will ever occur.  I think it will happen because of the understandable concern over air pollution.  Even more importantly, mass market EVs will be much cheaper to build and less costly to run because they have far fewer moving parts. 

I said on Monday, in response to AEP’s article, that in citing 2025, I thought Professor Seba was forecasting a rate of change which may be technologically feasible but impossible in terms of practicalities.  After all, most petrol stations are owned and operated by oil companies.  I think it will take at least another five to ten years, beyond 2025, before EVs count for a majority of the market.

Mark Schwartz says it will take decades for EVs to become a significant part of the market.  I disagree and note that he was speaking in a country which is a major oil producer.