Permanently Whip-Sawed
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February 26 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

Permanently Whip-Sawed

My thanks to Iain Little for his latest Fund Manager’s Diary, published by Global Thematic Investors. Here is the opening:

This is a true but cautionary tale about a bank. And, no, I'm not going to give you the name. In late 2000, gold celebrated 20 years as the best way to lose money on the planet, after falling by -70% from USD 850 to USD 275 an ounce. Ceding defeat, the bank closed its in-house gold fund. Then... gold went up 7 times from USD 275 to USD 1900. In crisis-torn 2011 (in a seminal issue of the Investment Committee), it was revealed that gold should have a "permanent place in client portfolios". Then... gold pancaked by -40% from USD 1900 to USD 1200- In mid-2013, the savants declared that gold had no place in client portfolios, things having got a lot better. Then... gold rose +8% from USD 1200 to USD 1300. And guess what? This week, the bank's venerable analyst issued a well-argued case for gold to be reduced further. Gold anyone?

David Fuller's view

Here is Fund Manager’s Diary.

If you are near London on March 7^th, do come along and meet Iain Little at The Markets Now seminar.

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