David Fuller's view

Well, this is certainly a colourful election, with more passion and controversy than I have seen during any other democratic process.  I have not quoted from this article above or any of the others listed.  However, if you are interested in India’s election, I suggest you scroll slowly down the One India News page, to see what must be at least a hundred other headline links.

I assume a record voter turnout.  Also, India’s stock market, which was near the 2013 low before it was confirmed that Narendra Modi would be the BJP’s candidate for prime minister, has rallied in line with his lead in the polls.

However, much of this strength in the Mumbai Sensex Index above is coming from international investors who think Modi’s leadership is exactly what India’s economy needs.  I am among them, although I have been invested in India since 2003. 

The question today, in my opinion, is the size of Modi’s victory.  It is hard to tell but opposition parties are understandably doing their best to weaken his lead and there have even been some unhelpful speeches within Modi’s BJP.  My guess is that anything less than an outright majority, an outside chance given the number of parties and various loyalties, will lead to a reaction and consolidation by India’s stock market, not least because it is temporarily overextended today.  However, the longer-term hope, reflected by the new all-time highs, is that Modi’s economic savvy and strong leadership will release more of India’s potential from the chaos of recent years.