Indonesian presidential candidate Joko Widodo is leading Prabowo Subianto with more than two-thirds of votes tallied from last week’s election.

Widodo, known as Jokowi, secured 52.8 percent of the 106.5 million votes counted as of yesterday, with Prabowo on 47.1 percent, according toKawalpemilu.org, a website that tracks actual results at polling stations that are uploaded to the General Elections Commission website. Most unofficial partial vote counts by survey companies show Jokowi with a 2-6 percentage point lead before official results due by July 22.

Indonesia is experiencing its first tight presidential race since direct elections for the post started a decade ago, with the outcome placing Asia’s fifth largest economy under the leadership of Jakarta Governor Jokowi, 53, or ex-general Prabowo, 62. A margin of four percentage points suggests Jokowi will maintain his advantage and make it hard to contest the results in court, said Andrinof Chaniago, a political analyst.

“Above three percent is enough to concede defeat,” Chaniago, from the University ofIndonesia near Jakarta, said yesterday by phone, speaking of Prabowo. “If there are little disputes in the poll booths, it won’t change the result.”

David Fuller's view

This could be an extremely important election result for Asia’s fifth largest economy which has seen its GDP growth slow in recent years.  Joko Widodo, who was born into poverty and rose to become governor of Jakarta, has a clean image and a reputation for effective governance.  Nothing could be more important for an emerging market.   

Indonesia’s JCI Index (weekly & daily) peaked in May 2013, capping a huge bull market which became very overextended relative to its 200-day moving average.  After an extensive pullback and consolidation, it has risen to retest its highs, in no small part on the basis that Widodo would win this national election.  Provided the result is not seriously contested, we should see at least a further challenge of the 2013 peak.  Conversely, a fall back beneath 4800 would indicate more extensive resistance near the former highs.