Momentum seems to be building up after the longest period of sub-5% growth in over 25 years. Growth rates of less than 5% p.a. for the last 2 years have been too low to create new jobs for the large numbers entering India's labour force. However, recent economic data suggest a turnaround may be occurring. Industrial production is in its best spell since last September, infrastructure output growth is at a 9-month high and manufacturing activity is growing at its fastest for 17 months. Car sales, a proxy for consumer demand, are also up. According to Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram, growth is now on a recovery path to reach an annual rate of c5.8% by year-end March 2015, up from 4.7% in the previous (fiscal) year. He indicated that "green shoots of recovery" are beginning to appear in the economy. We feel the momentum will increase once interest rates are cut.

David Fuller's view

Here is the India Report.