Russia has masterminded a counteroffensive by Ukrainian rebels, with well over 1,000 Russian troops operating inside Ukraine to man sophisticated weaponry and advise the separatists, according to NATO.

Rebel forces have opened a second front in southern Ukraine, forcing Ukraine’s army to divert some of its firepower, Brigadier General Nico Tak told reporters at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military headquarters in Mons, Belgium. The second front along the northern edge of the Sea of Azov could also be a prelude to establishing a land corridor with Crimea, the NATO officer said.

As Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called an emergency security meeting to defend against what he called a “de facto” Russian incursion, Tak cited evidence of Russian troops being killed in direct combat with Ukraine’s forces. Russia is positioning some 20,000 troops on Ukraine’s border, rotating them to keep them battle-ready, he said.

Tak said the fast-moving military developments are part of a Russian strategy to prevent a defeat of separatist forces, a response to military advances made by Ukrainian troops in the eastern strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk beginning in July. Russia has implemented methods of coercion and subversion in the region in addition to conventional warfare methods, he said.

Russia’s “aim is to freeze this conflict for a long period of time,” Tak said. “It’s likely that the situation will end in a stalemate. The foothold that's been created will be expanded and secured so that the separatists will not suffer a defeat.”

NATO released satellite images today that it says show Russian forces engaged in military operations in Ukraine.

Tak said NATO has “detected large quantities of advanced weapons, including air defense systems, artillery, tanks, and armored personnel carriers being transferred to separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.”

Russia has repeatedly denied allegations that it’s involved in the fighting.

The NATO general, who referred to Russia’s presence as an incursion rather than invasion, said an opening of a second front is “extremely worrying” for Ukraine, placing government forces in a “dire situation” and raising the risk that military supply lines could be cut off.

Russia has brought T-72 tanks into the battle zone, which can inflict more damage than the T-64 tanks used previously, Tak said. A second planned humanitarian aid convoy may be used to resupply Russian troops with items such as food and water.

David Fuller's view

While we may wish otherwise, a point repeated on Fuller Treacy Money is that this problem on the Ukraine border is not going to go away quickly.  The tragedy for all of Europe and not least Russians is that their country could be a positive and entrepreneurial success story under a different regime.  Instead, under Putin’s authoritarian, corrupt and incompetent rule Russia has a failing economy, reflected by its minimal GDP growth and sagging stock market.  

Putin now seeks economic growth and influence through a form of Soviet-lite, by attempting to take over several other countries which were formerly part of the USSR, but are not currently members of NATO or the EU.  To start, Putin needs and obviously wants not just Crimea but all of Ukraine.  Moreover, Russian citizens who approve of Putin expect him to achieve this. 

It will not be easy.  He has the military power but is opposed by most Ukrainians and the entire free world.  These countries are unlikely to send troops, as we have already heard, but they can increase sanctions against Russia.  They can also bolster NATO and support Ukraine with aid, including weaponry. 

 Western countries are understandably appalled by this situation.  However, they did not create Putin and he has chosen this path.  If countered by prudent resolve, it could lead to his downfall.  This policy is not without costs, as we already know from the sanctions.  However, history’s lesson is that passive acquiescence would be much more costly over the longer term.    

Meanwhile, we continue to see how susceptible stock markets are to increased military action on the Ukraine border, although the shockwave weakens as it travels beyond Europe.