Vladimir Putin demanded negotiations over “statehood” for eastern Ukraine as Moscow deepened its involvement in the bloody conflict between separatists and troops loyal to Kiev.

The comments came as allegations emerged that hundreds of troops may have been killed in the defeat of a Ukrainian force trapped southeast of Donetsk, in a further set-back for Kiev’s armed forces, and a coastguard vessel was reportedly bombed by Russia jets in the Black Sea.

“We need to quickly begin substantive and meaningful negotiations and not only on technical questions, but on questions of the political organisation of society and statehood for southeastern Ukraine,” Mr Putin told Russian television.

But Mr Putin warned people who expected Moscow-backed separatist militias, which have made striking gains in recent days, to wait for promised negotiations with Kiev were “prisoners of an illusion”.

Mr Putin’s spokesman later clarified Mr Putin was calling for negotiations between separatist leaders and the Ukrainian government on political independence, rather than demanding sovereignty for the rebel-held regions.

The comments will be seen by Western diplomats as further evidence that the Kremlin wants to create a de-facto autonomous region outside Kiev’s control in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin began last week openly referring to Novorossiya (New Russia), a term used to describe former Ottoman territories conquered by Catherine the Great which now include most of modern southeastern Ukraine and stretch as far west as Odessa.

Separatist fighters have been designated the “army of Novorossiya” by Russian state controlled media.

David Fuller's view

Putin is enjoying this, despite the inevitability of further sanctions which he presumably regards as no more than a temporary inconvenience.  Putin has been strengthening his military in recent years, which the West knew, but apparently no one ‘connected the dots’ in terms of his future intent. 

Today, Russia has overwhelming military superiority in the region, including relative to NATO.  The UK and EU countries have been reducing their modest military spending for several years and have been quick to say that they will not engage in a military conflict with Russia over Ukraine.  This is understandable and certainly sensible from most perspectives, but it has obviously emboldened Putin.

President Obama has also been scaling back US military spending during the last six years, although America’s armed forces have a strike force which remains second to none.  However, among military superpowers with large nuclear arsenals, Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) has long been the restraining factor.  Nevertheless, Obama has removed not only MAD from Putin’s calculations, but also ground troops by declaring that the US was not going to war over Ukraine.  

This means that Putin has the initiative and he is setting the agenda in Eastern Europe.  What is to stop him from extending Novorossiya (New Russia), potentially by intimidation and conquest, to every former member of the Soviet Union where some Russians still live?  The West is countering with sanctions, but so far too slowly to deter Putin’s aggression.  Obama and European leaders should increase their support of NATO, meaning more funds, troops and weaponry. 

This conflict is not only far from over, but is also intensifying.  To date, Russia’s military incursions in Ukraine have only had a small impact on Western stock markets, but that could change.  

If interested in the above, you may wish to read these articles from The New York Times: Putin Reportedly Says Russia Could ‘Take Kiev in 2 Weeks’, and Putin’s War of Words: A Roundup, and NATO Weighs Rapid Response Force for Eastern Europe.  There are some encouraging comments regarding the expansion of NATO in the latter part of this article, which I hope are prescient.  You may also be interested in: Choking Russian Banks Would be the Ultimate Sanction, from Bloomberg Businessweek.

(See also Monday’s second item on the Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances, 1994, when Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons.)