China Hong Kong Crisis
Comment of the Day

September 30 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

China Hong Kong Crisis

Here is a portion of this timely editorial from Bloomberg:

Only a political accommodation can break this deadlock. Rather than repeating that their decision about the CEO election will not be reversed -- something even most protesters acknowledge is desperately unlikely -- mainland authorities would do better to look for ways to reassure Hong Kong residents that their other cherished freedoms are secure.

Beijing’s requirement that Hong Kong leaders “love China,” for example, seems to foreclose the possibility of disagreeing with Communist Party policies. Yet local party officials make accommodations to protesters virtually every day on the mainland, over things such as factory conditions or pollution. Negotiating with the protesters over Hong Kong's new election procedures shouldn’t be out of the question. At the very least, Leung should be making much more of an effort to show demonstrators that he’s registered their grievances.

Supporters of the regime in Beijing might well ask, Why bother? China is hoping to build Shanghai as an alternative financial center to Hong Kong. But this argument is short-sighted. Shanghai is a long way from matching Hong Kong’s transparent judiciary, free press and regulatory oversight. Over time, if it wants to become a truly global financial center, Shanghai will have to become more like Hong Kong, not the other way around.

Most important, by refusing to address the legitimate grievances of Hong Kong’s citizens, Chinese authorities are only postponing the inevitable. Sooner or later, if they want to fulfill their vision of a powerful and united country, Chinese leaders are going to have to embrace and manage differences not just in Hong Kong but also in places such as Xinjiang and Tibet. Until then, tensions in all of them will only grow.

David Fuller's view

This is a test for China, which is feared more than it is loved within Asia.  This may not bother the new superpower but that would be short sighted.  In the global economy, no country can afford to upset its neighbouring countries or even its own territory, Hong Kong. 

Additionally, this impasse is not good for the global economy or investor confidence.  Both are currently facing a number of geopolitical problems which were not expected at the beginning of the year.  These have real costs and there is no certainty as to when they will be resolved.  

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