Governments in the Nordic and Baltic region are stepping up their defense preparedness in response to repeatedRussian incursions into their territories.

“What we are doing is what is to be expected from a military and political alliance: We are preparing ourselves for what we hope will not happen, we are preparing ourselves for the worst,” Norway’s Defense Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide said today in Oslo. “That’s our obligation, that’s an important step in preventing something from happening.”

At a meeting in the Norwegian capital today that included U.K. Defense SecretaryMichael Fallon, ministers agreed to step up cross-border training as part of a regional alliance to ward off any Russian threat. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly flouted international airspace rules, a behavior that Fallon characterized as “provocative.”

Russia is engaged in “dangerous brinkmanship” toward NATO and Nordic nations in its military moves, with almost 40 incidents of incursions and close encounters since March, according to a Nov. 10 report by European Leadership Network.

The research group identified three incidents that carried a “high probability” of causing casualties or direct military conflict, including a narrowly avoided collision on March 3 between a civilian SAS Group AB airliner taking off from Copenhagen and a Russian reconnaissance plane operating without its transponder, a device that identifies a plane.

David Fuller's view

Military intimidation is Putin’s strongest hand.  As an aggressive dictator and bully, he hopes that the West will meekly buckle. 

The Nordic governments are right to prepare for the worst, as should the entire west.  If that sounds dangerous, just remember that although Putin is reckless, he is also weak economically and on his own. 

The west should declare Putin’s regime (not Russia itself) a pariah government, not least for his own people and neighbouring countries.  The west should publicly tighten sanctions.  It should also step up its own defences, not least NATO.  This would be cheap at the price if it helps to deters Putin.  The west should also break Russia’s censorship by sending around-the-clock, Russian language explanations of what is really going on. 

These steps would have a chance of deterring Putin because he is hoping for a head-in-the-sand response from the EU and the west in general.  If he is proved wrong, this will further weaken Putin within Russia.

See also this short video: How Dangerous Is Russia’s Military?