I grew up hating America. I lived in the Soviet Union and was a child of the cold war. That hate went away in 1989, though, when the Berlin Wall fell and the cold war ended. By the time I left Russia in 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, America was a country that Russians looked up to and wanted to emulate.

Twenty-three years later, a new version of cold war is back, though we Americans haven’t realized it yet. But I am getting ahead of myself.

After Russia invaded Crimea and staged its referendum, I thought Vladimir Putin’s foreign excursions were over. Taking back Crimea violated plenty of international laws, but let’s be honest. Though major powers like the U.S. and Russia write the international laws, they are not really expected to abide by those laws if they find them not to be in their best interests. Those laws are for everyone else. I am not condoning such behavior, but I can clearly see how Russians could justify taking Crimea back – after all, it used to belong to Russia.

I was perplexed by how the Russian people could possibly support and not be outraged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But I live in Denver, and I read mostly U.S. and European newspapers. I wanted to see what was going on in Russia and Ukraine from the Russian perspective, so I went on a seven-day news diet: I watched only Russian TV – Channel One Russia, the state-owned broadcaster, which I hadn’t seen in more than 20 years – and read Pravda, the Russian newspaper whose name means “Truth.” Here is what I learned:

David Fuller's view

If you want to know why Putin is currently so popular in Russia, please read what Vitaliy Katsenelson learned when he spent a week watching only Russian TV – Channel One Russia, the state-owned broadcaster, and read Pravda.  It is a fascinating and chilling insight, and shows why Putin is so dangerous today. 

We live in a fascinating time, not least for investors.  Technological innovation is accelerating and oil producing states are losing their price control over what is still the world’s most important commodity.  These are the two most important factors capable of supporting the next secular bull market for not only Wall Street but most other stock markets.  

However, there is one known risk – Putin’s Russia - which is far more serious than any other, in my opinion.  If we are very lucky, not much will happen beyond what we have already seen in Ukraine.  Putin, weakened by the oil price slump and sanctions, will lose his stomach for a Cold War, which could heat up all too quickly.  Better still, he might even be overthrown by oligarchs who are appalled by the potential further consequences of Putin’s dictatorship. 

However, if neither of these outcomes occurs, Putin has the military power and intent to create havoc in Europe.  Moreover, he will attempt to do it within the next two years, while European economies are on their knees and a weak president remains in the White House. 

See – Expansionism: The Core of Russia’s Foreign Policy, by Volodymyr Valkov for New Eastern Europe.