“Dear David, the question you are asking (about Putin) is the most difficult one. Obviously, not only nobody knows the answer for it, but also it is impossible to make any forecasts because of complete irrationality of what's going on (though you can be sure that for Putin himself, as well as his elite and popular supporters his actions are most rational). Today, I like to describe the situation the following way. During Soviet times, western sovietologists tried to figure out what was going on within Soviet ruling elite by looking at the order members of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party were standing at the Mausoleum tribune on the Red Square. The closer to the General Secretary of the party, the more heavyweight the person could be considered. Because speeches on party congresses or public statements had almost nothing to do with the actual situation in the country. So it is today. Last Thursday, Putin provided his State of the Union address. Not a word was said about devaluation, rising inflation, economy falling into recession, ugly business climate. Only politics, the West which tries to put Russia on its knees - and, curiously, amnesty for all the capital sent abroad (this seems to be intended to stop the capital flight but who will bring his money back to the country with lots of uncertainties, no private property protection and recession?).

“If you know, back in 1917, February democratic revolution in Russia overthrew the czar, but in October Bolsheviks staged the coup, dissolved The All Russian Constituent Assembly (the first democratically elected legislative body of any kind in Russian history) and brought communism to this country. Today, there is also no guarantee that even if a reformer somehow comes to power, he will not be replaced by KGB or/and military or/and police. More possible at the moment seems an arrival of some            junta of Latin American kind. The mood is not merry here among the people who understand what's going on.” 

David Fuller's view

(This email was in response to my question: Who do you think will follow Putin, another hardliner or an enlightened reformer?  Russian people are not helpless, so they should have a say in the decision.)

Thank you for this detailed reply, including a reminder of the 1917 history.  Russia deserves better, but that is obviously difficult to achieve if all the military power is in the wrong hands.  Good luck to you; I wish you well.