The foundations on which Vladimir Putin built his 15 years in charge ofRussia are giving way.

The meltdown of the ruble, which has plunged 18 percent against the dollar in the last two days alone, is endangering the mantra of stability around which Putin has based his rule. While his approval rating is near an all-time high on the back of his stance over Ukraine, the currency crisis risks eroding it and undermining his authority, Moscow-based analysts said.

The president took over from an ailing Boris Yeltsin in 1999 with pledges to banish the chaos that characterized his nation’s post-communist transition, including the government’s 1998 devaluation and default. While he oversaw economic growth and wage increases in all but one of his years as leader, the collapse in oil prices coupled with U.S. and European sanctions present him with the biggest challenge of his presidency.

“People thought: ‘he’s a strong leader who brought order and helped improve our living standards,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst in Moscow. “And now it’s the same Putin, he’s still got all the power, but everything is collapsing.”

What’s happening now is worse than five years ago, according to Kirill Rogov, a senior research fellow at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. Putin risks losing his image as a leader who’s in control and can steer the country through turmoil, he said.

“After 2009, there was a quick recovery,” Rogov said. “Now we’re facing an uncontrollable shock. This undermines trust in Putin’s whole economic model.”

David Fuller's view

Russians are mostly grateful to Putin for restoring order following the inevitable chaos when the Soviet Union collapsed, but approval ratings can be notoriously volatile. Also, Russia’s polls are rigged, just like their elections, and international news is little more than propaganda. Most Russians who know what is going on fear a return to chaos, which is developing with the Ruble’s slump and undermining support for Putin.  His powerful friends stay loyal while they can still loot the system. 

In Communist kleptocracies the leader turns on his underlings when things go wrong, because sacrifices are required.  This is a dangerous game since it can further isolate the leader at a time when a collapsing currency is causing inflation to soar and shortages are increasing.  Can Putin survive 2015?  That will be difficult but Russia will not become a credible recovery candidate until governance improves. 

These short videos from Bloomberg today are interesting and mostly informative: Putin’s Friends Come Before Russian Ruble: Bershidsky - Is Russia Set for Repeat of 1998 Default on Ruble? - Putin Left to Deal With Shock Waves of Ruble Trouble - Russia Economy Is in Freefall Due to Oil Prices: Bremmer.